The Long Investor

$CELH - WATCHLIST -

Getting very very close to the blue support line that was in place between the middle of 2022 to the middle of 2023 before going on a very aggressive bull run.

A test and hold here at $27 and even some consolidation here then it would be wise to consider a starter position

200 Day MA is all the way up at $60 right now so in terms of technicals, it is undervalued, even a return to th...

$LYFT - WATCHLIST -

$LYFT is still glued to the wedge trend line on the upside, price is also getting squeezed between the 50 and 200 Day MA now too

Another retest of the 50 Day MA at $11.65 may be needed first but a hold here and moving back up to the 200 Day MA at $14.60 is bullish for me, holding then above this level and we could see a strong move to $21.50.

$SMCI

$SMCI is moving strong again today in the PM and the price has just gone above the 0.618 Fib at 49, where the 50 Day MA is waiting.

This is therefore a confluence level then, a hold above this level at $50 and there is a move up to the 200 Day MA $70 here

I have said a few times now that if $SMCI can convince the market that an appropriate audit has been done on their books then the...

$AMZN TOP 20

$AMZN I am watching very closely right now as $MSFT has lost its 200 Day MA

There is a strong confluence level here at the 0.618 Fib and 50 Day MA at $179, I would like this level to hold, there is green in the PM but there has been a warning shot fired by $MSFT this week.

If $AMZN loses this level or the 200 Day MA just slightly lower at $177 then we need to accept that the Wave C ...

$MSFT TOP 20

I have been worried about $MSFT for some time now and the chart does not look bullish

I spoke at the weekend about needing to hold above the 50 and 200 Day MA and the price was lost yesterday and red again the PM today but holding on the larger 0.236 Fib at $408.

Price action really needs to regain the 50 and 200 Day MA this week at $416, if there is a rejection trying to get above ...

$YINN

The 3 X leveraged position is taking a strong hit today, it did climb the strongest but it's great when its moving higher but rough when it's pulling back, if you are not out already, I would stay in my position and consider adding when support is found, you need to ride this storm here in this case.

Wave 3 went above the 1.618 Fib, anything above the 1.618 Fib for Wave 3 is extended, you...

$NIO TOP 20

• No change to the chart

• No change to the commentary

• We can eliminate the alternative chart for $NIO now

• Price is exactly at the 0.38 Fib now in the PM, so I am looking to see if Wave A will complete today.

  Between the 0.5 - 0.618 Fib levels is the key area for me to see the full ABC pull back, the 200 Day MA is already there waiting and ...

  2024-10-08 11:25:05 +0000 UTC View Post

$BIDU

What I love about today is that there is very little for me to update you on that you don't already know, the charts are moving as expected, even when the HSI falls by -9% there is no changes to our charts.

We have been all over this movement and we will continue to do so, all we need now is the price action to continue doing as it should

Wave 4 target is the 0.38 FIB at $102 as sta...

$BABA TOP 20

Please read the HSI chart I uploaded today when reading all Chinese ADR positions uploaded today

$BABA's pull back right now in the PM has not been as strong as the HSI so far or the other ADR's and has not reached its 0.236 Fib either but the market is not open yet so this can still come.

The pull back target for Wave 4 is always the 0.38 Fib which is conveniently perfect...

HSI

OK 3 important points to make today here:

1. We have the start of a substantial pull back, many doubted it would come but as always, it has.

2. It is crucial now that we see support found on the 0.38 Fib at 20658 or the 0.5 Fib at 19856 for Wave 4.

3. The variable here: We could still be in Wave 3.

So i'll address these all now:

1. Very welcomed pull back and now o...

$IQ

Nice pull back here so far, moving in line with $NIO
$BABA and $BIDU are still showing relative strength but I believe their pull back will be next and could help $NIO and $IQ pull back further.

We should be watching for a test and hold above the 0.618 Fib here at $2.45, we can also see how the 50 Day MA is aligning with the 0.5 Fib too at $2.65, so this will also be a level of interes...

$CQQQ

$CQQQ has comfortably returned to the Mean Reversion Zone now and testing the 200 WMA

Price was at $27 at the start of the year and right now at $49

I also believe this is in Wave 3 too and there is a pull back next for Wave 4 to the 0.38 Fib at $43, which also aligns with the bottom of the MRZ.

Once the price holds here on the pull back, I believe it can move higher to $59 o...

$CURE - WATCHLIST -

Don't sleep on the health sector during this pull back, I believe it is in the sweet spot of offering value and is a safe haven.

I have not added this position as a traditional safe haven as it is a 3 X leveraged bullish position....so it does come with higher risks.

That being said, I like the standard pull back here and that the 200 Day MA is aligning with the 0.618 Fib, just at $...

$IBM

I hope you have enjoyed this, it has been very nice to chart and comfortably in Wave 5 now and approaching the 2 Fib, if the market goes into Melt Up territory then it is possible that $IBM can go as high as the 2.618 Fib at $271, which we are seeing on a lot of charts at the moment.

So no action is needed right now if you are already holding.

As always, after Wave 5 we expect an AB...

$KO - SAFE HAVEN -

$KO like $PG are historical safe havens, one of the many reasons why Buffett loves this stock so much and it pays a handsome dividend each year of 2.76%
Price is also pulling back now since hitting the First Target and is looking set to test the blue line next at $67 since losing the the 50 Day MA.

A test and hold on the $67 line and this can move higher again to the First and Second t...

$MSTR

Very nice breakout here, which is looking more bullish than the $BTC chart,

Price is above the 50 and 200 Day MA and moving up towards the ATH line now at $201.

A break and hold above $201 and First and Second Targets are at $221 and $276

It is possible that $MSTR is front running $BTC now....interesting indication.

$PG - SAFE HAVEN -

Most Safe Havens are taking a breather right now (apart from Silver and Gold)

$PG is a notoriously strong safe haven and ran aggressively since May when the market was showing some volatility

But the price action hit the First Target exactly and has started to pull back

We may see a retest of the Blue support line at $165, where we can see that the 200 Day MA is moving up to t...

$ETH

$ETH price action is not building up any confidence for us lately as it moves sideways but what we can conclude is that it is consolidating above the 200 WMA, which is an important support level.

There is still a lot of work to do here and it may continue sideways for the rest of this month, unless $BTC stays above its 200 Day MA.

I have already added this month in this price range ...

$BA - WATCHLIST -

Showing signs that the bleeding may have stopped here at least in the short term for $BA

Support has been held so far above the strong confluence level at the 0.78 Fib and the yellow support wedge line.

Price is still below the 50 and 200 Day MA so there is risk still here but if the support can continue to hold and we see a series of higher highs and higher lows then in terms of Ri...

$VICI

$VICI is sensitive to the movements of the US 10 YR, so if the US 10YR increases, $VICI will react negatively....which is moving as we'd like it to, we want to see a further pull back to the 0.38 Fib at $31.71 or even lower to the 0.5 Fib at $30.91....if the 10YR goes as high as its own 200 Day MA.

A hold at either of these levels above and Wave 4 is complete for me

There have been ...

US 10 YEAR

US 10YR has bounced after consolidating along our red line at 3.67%.

This was after 6 months of strong declines.

I believe a relief bounce is needed here before it can proceed lower to our Wave C target at 2.6%

A bounce to the 200 Day MA at 4.185% seems an adequate relief bounce, what we want to see is a bounce in 3 waves and so far this is what I am seeing.

$GEST - RC - LSE -

There are mixed views here

Bulls will like:

• A pull back and hold on the 0.78 Fib

• Price staying on the outside of the trend line which has been in place since 2018

• Price is in between the 50 and 200 Day MA

• Holding support on the 50 Day MA

Bears will like:

• The price is still kept below the 200 Day MA 2024-10-07 10:51:58 +0000 UTC View Post

$HIMS - 3 YEAR PROJECTION -

We don't have many years to work with here but we have a very nice impulse wave since the middle of June 2022 and a solid pull back in 3 waves this year for Primary Wave 2.

The pull back in Wave 2 was held by the 50 WMA between the 0.5 - 0.618 Fib which is slightly short but the MA proved to be strong and there is a lot of attention towards $HIMS online

Primary Wave 3 should not sur...

$SOFI

The movement below the blue line at $8.30 has not been pretty and there has been a clear battle going on at this important resistance/support level since Jan 2023

Price has been making higher lows since July and the 200 and 50 Day MA's have been doing a good job acting as support since but the price needs to flip $8.30 to support convincingly to attract buyers here

A hold here and t...

$PFE - WATCHLIST -

All activists have great Technical guys from what I see

Absolutely no surprise to see Starboard make an announcement that they have bought a $1 Billion stake on the 200 Day MA, price has been below $31 since October '23

So this has been consolidating for a long time and Starboard are right to demand changes and expect to free up value here soon

My impulse wave is still maintai...

$OXY

$OXY is moving higher in the PM as Oil prices move higher too.

We can see that the PM price has gone back above the 0.38 Fib too at $56, which was a support line since the start of 2023 and at the lower range of where Buffett was accumulating.

We may have gotten a very solid bargain last week when we added at $52.

Price is also above the 50 Day MA now too, what I'd like to see...

$NIO TOP 20

$NIO is up in the PM right now after another positive start to the week from the HSI as the market awaits the Fiscal measures that will be announced tomorrow.

I have added both charts we have been following for $NIO, with the 0.38 Fib at $6.15 being the important level to hold

Right now we have 3 waves since pulling back from $7.71, so technically a pull back is valid.....but it is ...

$SPY TOP 20

Big week ahead for economic data, JOLTS, CPI and PPI.....$NVDA are holding AI day and $TSLA has their 10/10 FSD event.

$SPY is already above its previous ATH level so the market is showing bullish signals and I believe it will continue higher to $589 until the Mega Caps start reporting their earnings

This will then be pivotal, if they report strong earnings then we could see the mel...

$QQQ TOP 20

$QQQ continues to lag behind the $SPY and is still searching for that test of its previous ATH level at $503

So far we have one rejection at the 0.78 Amber Fib level at $494 but this is just one test and a another attempt can be made.

I have mentioned this a number of times now and I believe a lot of it comes down to how $NVDA behaves in its wedge, a breakout at $126 and the $QQQ wi...

$PLTR TOP 20

$PLTR really is in its own world right now

War time favours $PLTR and the Cup and Handle formation is almost looking like destiny now.

I think the best thing to do here is watch and observe

Valuation is crazy right now and it is overvalued, which is why I trimmed 20% this week, one negative catalyst could hit this hard and cause this to pull back which it is almost certain of ...