The Long Investor

$IWM

$IWM showed bullish moves and going against the general market in Julyh but when the sell off came, every position and sector got targeted, some more so than others but $IWM fell in line with $SPY and $QQQ.....which is counter to what Tom Lee has said about the small caps market.

That said, August is only in its 6th day so far and the price is testing the 200 Day MA support level now and ...

$PFE - WATCHLIST -

$PFE continues to be one of the safest places now to add.

We wanted to see a pull back after hitting the $31 level at the 2.618 Fib and now we have it, pull back came down to the 50 Day MA and just above the 0.618 Fib at $28 and so far holding.

No changes to the chart or the Wave 3 target.

Health sector continues to be resilient right now.

$JMIA

-47% down today after a double miss and lower growth compared to last year and today or this week was probably not the week to report something like this.

Non-profitable companies will be under a lot of pressure at the moment.

That being said, Wave 5 came very close to the 2 Fib which is standard for Wave 5 to complete at and the decline today fell to the 200 Day MA at $5.50 and has...

$BABA TOP 20

Whether you have accepted it or not, $BABA has not declined over the last month it is exactly at the same price it was at on the 11th of July.

It did not drop 10-15% with the US market or -40% with some Mega Caps like $NVDA, it has held its level, so although it has not made its move yet higher (as it has not reported it earnings) it is holding and conserving our capital.

Silver too...

$SHOP TOP 20

We got our test of the 0.618 Fib yesterday, this is a common sight right now and a test and hold on the 200 Day MA, price hit $48.56 and managed to finish the day holding at $52.

Earnings are due out tomorrow before the market opens so today will be an interesting day for $SHOP and if they can report a positive beat or any improvement on their last 2 earnings, this should get a bounce. 2024-08-06 13:09:37 +0000 UTC View Post

$BIDU

$BIDU and $BABA did not experience the same violent sell off at the opening yesterday and $BABA finished -0.6% for the day but $BIDU suffered a heavier finish at -2.5%

The wedge was lost but managed to finish on the trend line to finish the day.

Their earnings report is on the 22nd of August and it can not come fast enough, they need something to help turn this around or there will...

$COIN

What we know now for sure is that $COIN and $BTC move together and they unfortunately move with the market too, however it does look like they are ahead of the market, as there is 3 clear ABC moves now and we are waiting for support confirmation to come in.

Price hit the 0.5 Fib yesterday and has now bounced considerably and back above its 200 Day MA, so if the price can stay above its 20...

$CELH

$CELH went within 1 cent of the 0.618 Fib which is always an incredible sight to see, especially as it was on the day of its earnings and held.

They then reported earnings and it was a double beat and demand still remains healthy.

Price has jumped +6% in the PM now and this is a good start.

Like a lot of charts right now, testing their 0.618 Fib and 200 Day MA, we have just re...

$V TOP 20

$V has now rejected at its 200 Day MA which we spoke about in Sundays update and has now pulled back all the way towards the blue support line again at $252, price got as low as $254 yesterday too.

We will need to see how $V handles support and holding above this level now before considering a position.

We can also see that the 50 Day MA is above to cross the 200 Day MA for a death ...

$DELL

Interesting to see that both $AMD and $DELL have both held on their 0.618 Fib which would possibly complete their ABC correction if the price can continue holding above this level now.

I only have one buy in for $DELL with 4 more still to go, if I can get support confirmation, I will add again.

Remember, I will use my cash to buy a position that I see has completed their ABC correct...

$AMZN TOP 20

Ok, it is now entirely possible that $AMZN has completed its Wave A count now, it has fallen very aggressively, losing its 50 Day, 200 Day and even going as low as in between its 0.38 Fib and 0.5 Fib, this is where we would expect Wave A to complete and this is where I am expecting the $QQQ to complete Wave A too.

So if you want to add to catch Wave B, holding above $155 does make sense.<...

$SPY TOP 20

There was no way I could have predicted Buffett would sell 50% of his $AAPL holding, or that the Nikkei would collapse and fall -14% today, we followed the charts and the indicators we use to build a picture of how the market is behaving.

And the market played out by following our corrective count.

I think the $SPY will need to test its 200 Day MA at $500 before any Wave B bounce wi...

$QQQ

Cramer ironically made a very solid statement today, large declines like what happened today usually do not mark the end of a move, there will be some relief and then a flush down and we will still be in Wave A I believe.

The 200 Day MA was lost today, which is a crack, a weakness to this support level, the price did manage to recapture this level to finish the day but it has showed us th...

$AMD TOP 20

$AMD has done what we have asked of it and just because you did not add at $121 today does not mean you missed anything, I would rather see you staying composed and waiting for confirmation of support instead of rushing a buy.....and that is for any buy for that matter, I don't care that it hit exactly at our target for Wave C, we have always said that we are prepared to give up a few percent i...

$PLTR TOP 20

$PLTR reported after the close and it was a double beat, impressive growth and raised guidance and the share price is up +12.5% in AH trading on the strength of this news.

Market collapsed earlier at the opening and tailored off during the day, we saw a similar decline like this last week on Tuesday and the following day there was a strong relief bounce, as I mentioned on Sunday, I suspec...

US 10 YEAR

When the yield drops, bonds go up and the stock market comes down.....this is the theory.

And so far, the theory is playing out.

We involve all metrics when coming to our conclusion on the market, it is not simply EWT and adding Fibonacci extensions, you must consider all influences to build a picture.

Death Cross is now clear on the US 10 Yr chart now, I suspect the fall will...

$TMF - SAFE HAVEN -

$TMF has been the leading safe haven so far, although it is 3 X leveraged of $TLT, but when the US 10 YEAR drops, $TLT climbs and $TMF multiplies this climb.

The US 10 Year has just given us a death cross too so I expect this to continue to fall too.

I have also added in the impulse wave now too and Wave 3 is at the 1.618 Fib at $90, a 50% jump from its current position.

$HIMS

$HIMS reports after the market closes today and opened in the PM down -9%.

We need to revert back to my original $HIMS chart because this pull back is behaving like an ABC correction and not a standard Wave 4 pull back.

On the chart above we have Wave 5 topping out at the blue line at $25 and then pulling back for an ABC correction, price hit $15 today in the PM, so it has experienc...

$VIX

Has certainly broken its trend and is giving us signs of panic in the market, a break above 30 is usually an indication of a correction and above 38 we are starting to see signs of capitulation, 41 was hit earlier today.

We are still some distance away from breaking above 50 which would give us a severe indication, in line with the '08 crash and the Covid Crash in 2020

$SQQQ

$SQQQ is looking like it is getting its moment.

I have added in an impulse wave now and Wave 3 should bring the $SQQQ up to its 200 Day MA for a test at $12.20

If we can see $SQQQ move in an impulse wave then this is likely the start of a larger impulse move higher.

Up +10.5% in the PM now.

$NVDA

Dipped below $100 today in the PM and showing a large weakness compared to the other Mega Caps in the PM now too.

$88 on the 0.38 Fib is the level I am watching for support to be held, I do not see a Wave B bounce yet so once support is held, I expect Wave B to come in next, with Wave C likely to send below the 200 Day MA towards the 0.5 Fib at $72.

SILVER - SAFE HAVEN -

This is what a store of value looks like.

Holding while the market is capitulating and doing its job as a safe haven.

We will watch to see if there is a retest of the 0.5 Fib and if this is not held, the 0.618 Fib at $26 is the next level, a hold here and the plan remains the same, to add at $26.

$ETH

Crypto just got annihilated when futures opened last night and the Nikkei began to sell off.

Pull back has been severe across the board and breakdowns are clear.

There is a small infringement below the blue line, which was the Top of Wave 1, so this pull back can no longer be Wave 4 when this happens, and it is likely its ABC correction.

$BTC and $ETH are not showing that they...

$SPY TOP 20

$SPY bulls were doing a good job before Thursday, they were able to hold up the price above the 50 Day MA after a number of tests and looked like they were about to survive the earnings storm and come out of it on the other side......but economic data, the Fed and some Mega Cap earnings all came together on Thursday and had other plans.

It was a barrage of negative market sentiment and bo...

$QQQ TOP 20

$QQQ got the retest of the 50 Day MA from below on Thursday after a relief bounce came and once the price hit this level, it rejected hard as some economic data was released and when $AMZN reported on Thursday after the close and it was a miss, the market reacted accordingly and flushed down heavy, marking one of the weakest weeks for the market since the covid crash in 2020.

Remarkably, ...

$V TOP 20

Our new addition to the Top 20 List has done incredibly well to start.

We spoke about an opportunity to add $V directly after its earnings when it tested the $252 support level and bounced very strong this week to its 200 Day at $267, in spite of a very weak market

Likely people treated $V like a safe haven this week and I believe that is fair.

I want to see a pull back here t...

$TSLA TOP 20

$TSLA could not hold on the outside of its wedge this week, after putting up a good fight at the start of it, the weak market sentiment was too strong and the price action flushed down to its 50 and 200 Day MA, while the price is above these moving averages, the impulse wave is still valid as Wave 1 was not infringed upon but a break down below the red line at $200 and the bulls could not do th...

$SHOP TOP 20

This chart has been uploaded multiple times now and I am sure everyone is aware that the yellow trend line did not hold and the 0.618 Fib at $49 will be the next level to test support.

$SHOP is certainly a stock I will be adding and holding for Long Term and will start adding once support is found

I believe $49 is an undervalued price and anything below this level is a god sent.

$SE TOP 20

$SE got the retest of the $67 level from below this week and rejected at it, forcing the price action to drop hard and move down this H&S pattern.

The 200 Day MA is moving up to the 0.5 Fib at $55, so bulls want to see support held at this confluence level and the pull back will be complete then and it can move higher.

Losing the 200 Day MA at the next test of support is at the ...

$PYPL TOP 20

$PYPL got the God candle after it reported on Tuesday after a double beat and improvement across all metrics.

We spoke during the week that the bounce is unlikely going to go above the $68 level and a pull back will be needed first, which we expected to come down to the 50 and 200 Day MA......and this is what happened on Friday, price finished the week just sitting on the 200 Day MA.