The Long Investor

SILVER - SAFE HAVEN -

I added Silver yesterday as it has been testing the 0.5 Fib at $27, having moved in an ABC count so far, it is not confirmed whether Wave C is complete but there is no reason why it can not bounce from here on the 0.5 Fib with a test.

We can see that the RSI is at 30 now, right at the oversold territory, each time this has happened over the last 18 months it was followed by a bounce.
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$HIMS

$HIMS outstanding week so far, while selling has been seen across the majority of sectors, $HIMS is now reaching to test a higher high here at $23.91.

Up again in the PM now after having back to back strong positive days and red days for the market.

A break above $23.91 confirms the trend is to the upside and we also have a higher low in too.

Chart has not changed here either...

$BTC TOP 20

Bitcoin has handled this week quite well and I continue to see a movement since its bounce at $53k in an impulse wave.

Price pulled back this week for what I see as Subwave 4 but held on the 0.38 Fib which was at the 50 Day MA too and has bounced.

Big test of course will be finally getting out of this channel and above the $69k level and the channel at $70k.

Holding above $69k...

$SOFI

I think $SOFI has performed ok this week, no large movements down, just moving in a controlled manner down to its white fib support levels and still above its 50 Day MA, this is good to see.

$SOFI may have the same issue as $PLTR, I can only see one wave down so far, so a relief bounce may come next, followed by another test of the 0.5 Fib or the 0.618 Fib, which would be standard.

...

$TLT - SAFE HAVEN -

$TLT is traditionally seen as a Safe Haven but yesterday it sold off with the market but the most important factor is that it did not lose its structure.

Price is back above its 200 and 50 Day MA today and still in this triangle.

Bonds are typically seen as a haven to preserve capital during market uncertainties but it is a slow mover, which is also not a bad sign, gives people plen...

$QQQ TOP 20

The Tech sector is not behaving as strong as the S&P today and is still below its 50 Day MA and does not look set on testing this level from below today, there is still time to do this tomorrow or even early next week.

The $SPY broke below its 50 Day MA today, bounced almost immediately and looks set to test the 50 Day MA from above right now.....this has been a whirlwind day for the ...

$PLTR TOP 20

This is the 1hr chart, so we can see the details of the intraday movement.

The price flushed down to the 0.5 Fib and just held $0.30c above this level and bounced well with the market,

We can see that the price action is respecting the 200 MA on the 1hr chart very well and has reclaimed this level so far.

My concern here and with the market is that this is only a relief bounce...

$AMD TOP 20

May low line at $141 has now been broken down and the impulse structure is no longer valid, this was highlighted a number of times lately and again twice yesterday.

The 0.618 Fib at $120 is the next target and a hold at this level and I will be adding.

The AVE PT for $AMD across Wall St is $200, so adding at $120 is something I will be happy to take.

$BMBL - RC -

$BMBL showed promise in May after its positive earnings beat and bounced above its 50 Day MA, managed to show some strength but on the 50 Day MA retest, the price could not hold support and it has been on a slippery slope since.....formed another downward wedge and likely to continue testing the bottom trend line as it moves lower.

Earnings are due on the 7th of August, if they can turn a...

$BTI - EARNINGS JUST RELEASED -

Up +4% in the PM now

** Stock at its highest level since September 2023

** Reports 1.3% rise in HY profit to 169.3 pence per share, above analyst expectations

** Posts 0.8% fall in organic revenue

** Maintains FY outlook

** Including session's gains, stock up 15.1% YTD

We have been highlighting this position a lot lately, mainly attracted to its reversal mov...

$TSLA TOP 20

A very harsh and bad reaction to their earnings report yesterday, it wasn't perfect by any stretch and the market was unforgiving to delays to their Robotaxi project but in essence, the company is still producing incredible numbers and revenue, it is still the leader and has a fantastic future.

Support needs to be found now tho.

Losing the triangle, the 0.38 Fib and the trend li...

$SPY TOP 20 - FULL BRIEFING ON THE MARKET AND MY POSITIONS -

OK, Sundays brief on the $SPY has been playing out as we explained so I'm going to add more detail now.

The price action is exactly at the 50 Day MA right now, slightly dipping below it in the PM now, as there is a mixed reaction across different sectors in the PM too after yesterdays harsh sell off.

A continuation of yesterday's sell off today will paint a big picture for us, expl...

$IWM

$IWM was also not immune from the sell off yesterday as stocks or crypto did not rotate into any haven, there was a clear blanket sell off across every sector, market and exchange, nowhere was safe.

$IWM however still has one of the best set ups right now and has not reached its previous ATH, unlike the S&P 500, $BTC and Gold.

$IWM is likely in the same camp with $ETH and Silver...

$NIO TOP 20

$NIO behaving like an outlier in the PM now after Chinese policy makers increased the subsidies for NEV for new and upgrading vehicles.

This is a warm welcome from policy makers and another Rate Cut by China on the 1 year rate was announced today too, we are still waiting for the HSI to respond to these measures.

$NIO pulled back yesterday due to $TSLA and $GOOG's induced market s...

$VIX - LESSON -

For those members who are unaware of what the $VIX is, here is a brief explanation with the help of Gemini:

The VIX, officially known as the CBOE Volatility Index, is a real-time market index that represents the market's expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days. It is often referred to as the "fear index" or "fear gauge" because it tends to ri...

HSI

We wanted to see the 200 Day MA hold during the session today and show relative strength against the US market but the 200 Day MA has not held so far and it is still seeking support.

Because the 200 Day MA was lost, this pull back for potentially Wave 4 infringed upon our original Wave 1, so the previous Impulse Wave could not stay valid.

What I am exploring here is this potential L...

$ETH

Crypto has not been spared from this global sell off this morning, when the 50 Day MA was lost here, the price fell through the support levels and could not hold its 0.5 Fib and 200 Day MA.

The price managed to hold above the 0.618 Fib so it will be interesting to see if this can reclaim the 200 Day MA when the market opens or in the PM for the market, which is exactly at the 0.5 Fib at ...

SILVER

Stocks, Bonds, Silver, HSI, Crypto and Commodities have all sold off over the last 24hrs.

Some more so than others but the dust has not settled yet.

Silver we were watching lately to see if the 0.38 Fib would hold, as it did twice at the start of June, this level has not held now and as we said in the last update, we would have no issue buying Silver at the 200 Day MA at the 0.618 ...

$CMG - EARNINGS JUST OUT -

$CMG has reported a beat on earnings with an EPS of $0.34 vs $0.32 estimates.

Price managed to hold on its 200 Day MA going into earnings and will likely get a positive bounce continuing into tomorrow.

I still believe this is in its ABC correction and this bounce is Wave B and could reach $64 before moving lower to the 0.5 Fib at $37.

It is hard to expect $CMG to make new ATH'...

$PDD - WATCHLIST -

$PDD is at a very important confluence level now at the 0.618 Fib and the 200 Day MA.

A hold here and $PDD could move higher to our Wave 3 target at the 1.618 Fib at $193.

The 200 Day MA has been a support level since October 2022 and it is being tested now.

I will be curious to see how the HSI opens today and finishes later, if it can do what it did in April, aggressively cli...

$AMD TOP 20

The moment I saw the 200 Day MA struggle to hold today at $153, I alerted the group that the decline is likely and if you were not comfortable holding to $120, then you need to assess your position.

I think the Wave C scenario moving down to the 0.618 Fib is the likely scenario now, unless bulls carry $NVDA and $AMD tomorrow, both have lost their 50 and 200 Day MA's respectively today. 2024-07-24 20:20:03 +0000 UTC View Post

$SHOP TOP 20

Today was not an insignificant day, the $SPY and $QQQ had their worst day combined since October 2022, which was just before the start of the Bull run, this date is important, meaning we have not had weakness like this since the last bear market.

$SHOP was under pressure today and lost its 0.618 Fib and yellow trend line, it will need to recapture this level, like it did in the middle of ...

$NFLX

This is not a good look for $NFLX

Double top at the blue line at $700 and pulled back, it has not lost its 50 Day MA while testing this MA from below now.

200 Day MA is lower at $560, losing this MA and the correction is confirmed, white Fib levels have been added to show where support can come.

$PLTR TOP 20

Firm rejection now at the $29.30 level so there are no changes to the chart that we uploaded at the weekend, the white fib levels are the same too.

A pull back to inbetween the 0.5 - 0.618 Fib levels where the 50 Day MA is right now is where we should be looking.

This also coincides with their earnings release date too on the 5th of August.

I would consider adding again when ...

$DELL

$DELL is deep into its ABC correction now, having lost its 50 Day MA at the start of July.
Price could not hold the 0.38 Fib at $123 and has now sunk down to $118 today.

The Wave C target at the 0.5 Fib at $106 is the target and the the 200 Day MA will be waiting there too.

Nice chart here if $DELL can hold on this level, losing the 200 Day MA and the 0.618 Fib is at $88.

LESSON - POSITION SIZING -

I think this lesson is well overdue and recently it has been highlighted again that position sizing needs to be understood with more clarity.

It is one of the most critical yet often overlooked aspects of successful investing

It's not just about what you buy, but how much of it you buy.

Why Position Sizing Matters:

• 2024-07-24 12:30:50 +0000 UTC View Post

$PLTK - RC -

$PLTK has only been on the exchange since 2011 so it has not developed a cycle yet and is still searching for a confirmed support, so far we can see that there was a low at $6.21 and there has been a gradual climb since then

In a descending wedge here so the trend must breakout of this to show signs of a reversal.

Above $8.35 would trigger this breakout and the First Target is $10.5...

$ASTS

$ASTS has cut through the First Target, with some resistance but has managed to flip the $12.20 line to support and has been pushing higher.

There are no changes to the chart and it does not look like pulling back here.

The price has now jumped from $2 to $14 since the end of May and our Second Target is all the way up at $22.50.

Another retest of the $12.20 level again, tur...

SILVER

Silver has managed to stop its decline below its 0.38 Fib at $28.47 because earnings season has been heating up and Mega Caps have started to report, if they had beaten strong, I suspect Silver would have continued lower to the 0.5 Fib at $27 at least.....now that $TSLA and $GOOG are in and they have been underwhelming, and $GOOG has lost its 50 Day MA in the PM, Silver may feel some love here ...

$GOOG TOP 20 - LONG TERM PROJECTION

TWEET:
$GOOG went hard in its previous earnings by approving a large share buyback and dividend and it pushed higher, it could not do that again with this earnings.

 $GOOG is still a monster but a pull back is needed.

Notice how the 50 MA on the weekly and the 200 MA on the we...