The Long Investor

$HIMS

The battle continues on the 200 Day MA and the blue support line at $25.40.

This has been ongoing since the flush down on the 4th of April and every time the bulls have been able to defend this confluence level.

Some sideways movement during this tariff war is bullish I believe as many stocks are under severe pressure right now and $HIMS is still green YTD.

Earnings report is ...

$DLTR

Another legacy sector leader beaten down to inbetween the 0.618 and 0.78 Fib range and has been holding on the 2020 low level at $60 since July '24.

The price held at $60 in 2020 and when the full effects of the covid crash took over, many customers ran to $DLTR to stretch their dollar and the price ran from $60 to $177

So this is something to consider if a recession does happen in ...

$MP - WATCHLIST -

Chart continues to look very good here and moving comfortably in our Wave 3.

Price has broken out of the 3 year channel, retested the breakout level and has bounced now on the 50 Day MA as the trade war intensifies.

Price is at $25 now and we have Wave 3 hitting the 1.618 Fib at $38.50.

And Wave 5 going to the 2.618 Fib at $52.

$RDDT

Could not hold its standard support level on the 0.618 Fib at $110.

Price action tried twice to recapture this level but the 200 Day MA was offering strong resistance and the price action rejected and dropped down to the 0.78 Fib at $78 and has so far found support.

There is a pull back now but a higher low needs to come in next in order to confirm that the ABC correction is complet...

$SOXL

This is why I do not like leveraged positions.

The downside risk is always pronounced and can destroy your positions, it always feels good in a bull market but is devastating in the bear market.

Price action is moving down to the blue support line at $6.25 and losing the 2020 low at $3.65 and this may not survive.

Support needs to come in soon or this is in trouble

$UNH

Things have been going from Bad to Worse for $UNH since their CEO was assassinated last year.

RFK JR being appointed as Health Secretary has also been a dark cloud over them too, now they have missed on earnings last week, the first time this has happened in at least 8 years from the records I can see on this chart

The price action down -22% on Friday on this news too.

Bulls w...

$BMY - WATCHLIST -

$BMY is looking very good here.

Primary Wave 2 held exactly on the 0.618 Fib at $41.

Bounced back up to the wedge bottom line at the 200 WMA and pulled back again to a higher low at the next 0.618 Fib at $48.

This is a chart we have been following for some time now too and it has moved as expected.

A hold above $48 now and we will get another bounce back up to the 200 WM...

$MU

$MU has made it all the way down to the standard 0.618 Fib at $60, I warned about this scenario in the summer last year that the bounce was in Wave B and that Wave C would be next but this did not go down very well with a lot of people because they believed it would go higher, the chart was not showing this.

I hope many members followed this chart closely.

The 0.618 Fib is the stan...

$ELV - RC -

A number of requests for this chart over the last few weeks but again there are no changes to my projection count.

Wave B is looking very clear and a test of the confluence level at the 50 and 200 WMA and also the 0.5 Fib at $464 has been a difficult resistance level.

I believe my Wave C count will play out down to the 0.5 Fib at $341 or even lower to the 0.618 Fib at $288.

$INDA

$INDA's bounce back into the rising wedge looks a lot more healthier than $SPY's and $QQQ and looks set to continue higher to the 50 WMA and the amber fib resistance levels, which we want to see on the other charts too.

There will be a big test at $53-$54.

A rejection here then, Wave C is next down to the 0.5 Fib at $39 or lower to $35.

No rejection and the price can continue ...

$CMG

Also reports on Weds but after the market closes.

Those who have been here for some time will know that this chart has not changed in about a year and we caught this move up and down for its ABC correction.

I believe there is still more downside and a test of the 200 WMA at $42 can come next

Losing this level and the 0.5 Fib at $37 is next or the standard ABC correction level ...

$BA

$BA reports before the market opens on Weds.

China announced this week that they have halted any Chinese Carriers from receiving any Boeing aircraft last week, this will likely play a big part on their earnings and this was done strategically by China, knowing they have their earnings this week and a big employer in the US too.

$BA also falls into the category of a legacy sector lea...

$NVDA

Down -2.3% in the PM, Jensen seen in China talking to leaders may not have calmed the concerns towards $NVDA right now but from Jensen's point of view it was the right thing to do.

He does not want to show that he has taken any side and could likely be an influential figure between both sides coming together to make a trade deal.

$NVDA's pull back has not looked healthy either since...

The LIT Sunday News

Trump Threatens Tariffs on Critical Minerals, Escalating U.S.–China Trade Conflict

Key Developments

President Donald Trump has signed an executive order directing the Commerce Department to investigate U.S. dependence on cr...

$SPY TOP 20

$SPY and $QQQ chart since the bounce on the 7th of April have been very similar, both failing to make a higher high on the 14th of April and now showing some further weakness.

I have shared the downside level that needs to be held on the $QQQ chart in order to complete the 5 waves higher and on this chart above, the $508 level needs to hold in order to complete 5 waves higher.

If $5...

$QQQ TOP 20

The $SPY and $QQQ bounce since the 7th of April low have both been the same.

There was a failure to make a higher high on the 14th of April after Trump announced the chip ban to China and the market pulled back strong, pull backs are normal of course but a pull back after bouncing in 3 waves is typically a sign that we see a lower low next (below the 7th of April low)

5 waves can s...

$TSLA TOP 20

$TSLA reports this week on Tuesday after the market closes and it will be one of the first Mega Caps to report and historically does play a big role on how the market moves.

There will be concerns this week on orders and declining sales and this is already reflected on the share price right now, as the price is below the 200 WMA leading into earnings, which is not bullish.

It is vit...

$V TOP 20

No changes to this chart or the commentary.

Still comfortably above the 50 and 200 WMA's, pulled back in 3 controlled waves to just above the 0.38 Fib, where the 50 WMA was waiting and bounced quite strong.

I can not see any other dominant count right now as what I am showing and this chart has not changed in nearly a year now.

+25% on the table here to complete Wave 5.

$SHOP TOP 20

$SHOP is still above the 200 WMA but below the 50 WMA, the price action has bounced out of the Buy Zone but there is still a large black cloud over $SHOP right now and there may be concerns during their earnings report.

A lot of small businesses use $SHOP to help sell their products and if we look at the $IWM chart, we know how much small caps have taken a hit and this will likely trickle...

$PYPL TOP 20

I consistently get asked: 'What is the best company to buy right now in terms of risk v reward with the aim to hold for long term?'.....and $PYPL is always the first company that comes to mind.

Undervalued both fundamentally and technically, strong history and management, Cash heavy, 20% Buy back approved and comfortably in the Buy Zone.

I have added twice since the pull back starte...

$NKE TOP 10 & TOP 20

I have started accumulating $NKE at $55 and I will be adding again under $60.

I can not eliminate the downside risk of $46 at the 0.78 Fib but I believe that $NKE can this around and starting growing again and I am happy with the risk v reward set up here.

Accumulating under the blue line, below the 0.618 Fib and after a 3 wave pull back and significantly below where Ackman added ab...

$MSFT TOP 20

Does have a 3 wave pull back and it has taken a year to get to this point.

$MSFT has not been in the same count as the market for some time now and it remains to be seen whether or not this can drop down lower below the 200 WMA at $340 and move down to the red Fib support levels, which would indicate at 1929 Style Correction.

For now we will watch to see if a higher low can come in ...

$INTC TOP 20

$INTC just finished the week on the 0.88 Fib on the blue support line and in the Buy Zone and Consolidated range at $18.50

However, the commentary has not changed here either, we want to see more strength and more consolidation sideways to confirm that the bottom is in, losing $18.50 and the downside risk is down to the GFC LOW at $12, erasing all gains for the last 16 years.

Right...

$GOOG TOP 20

Chart and commentary remain the same here too.

There has been no Wave B bounce since the drop from $208 to $143 so Wave B is the expected move next.

If the market gets dragged down by $NVDA this week then Wave A is still active but I believe Wave B is the dominant scenario right now and a move up to the 50 WMA at the 0.5 Fib at $175 will be needed at the very least.

A drop do...

$DIS TOP 20

I find it difficult to expect $DIS to go anywhere else next apart from making a lower low under $78

The set up isn't there to show a reversal yet and the price action is trending downwards and MA' confirm this too.

Bulls will be hoping for a triple bottom on the blue line at $78 but I think this level breaks down

If the bulls can recapture this level quickly after the break do...

$ABNB TOP 20

$ABNB weekly chart here does not fill me with confidence, we have a death cross on the weekly MA's here too and although we got a test of the $100 level this month, we need to see more price action and strength before we can assume that support is now confirmed.

Travel and bookings have taken a hit, particularly in the US but $ABNB has exposure to every country and as a long term play I b...

$BABA TOP 10 & TOP 20

What is going to happen the moment a deal is made or a postponement of tariffs are announced?

The price action jumps for Wave 3.

It is clear the market is waiting for positive news here and will react accordingly and the set up is there.

Which is why we added at $101.97.

Price held above the 200 Day MA and the 200 WMA too.

China is in a position where it can pump m...

$BTC TOP 20

$BTC is now at an interesting point, price has tested the upper limits of the bullish channel, holding above the 50 Day MA and still below the 200 Day MA.

It is getting tight in this area too so a direction must be taken soon, a pull back to the small white fibs for a higher low does not mean it is not bullish in the short term, it is just a retest of a higher support level and $79.5k loo...

$AMZN TOP 20

The issue with a lot of the bounces since the 7th of April, across the Mega Cap's and the markets is that they are not moving in an impulse nature (moving in 5 waves)
This tells us that a lower low below the 7th of April low is still possible, meaning Wave A could still be active.

With $AMZN, below the 0.5 Fib, the support level held on the 7th of April is the Buy Zone for me, so anyti...

$AMD TOP 20

$AMD started the week strong and ran to $96 from $76 and unfortunately a further sanction on chips to China was announced by Trump and the semi sector pulled back aggressively, a further catalyst that was not needed at that time as these positions were trying to recover.

The market had no idea that this announcement would be made, so there will always be a negative reaction to them, this ...