The Long Investor

$BTC TOP 20 - LONG TERM PROJECTION -

I really like this view of $BTC, we can see that the breadth of the Cup formation above the neckline leads almost exactly to the 1.618 Fib, which would be the Wave 3 target.

Coincidences like this are green flags for me.

I still believe $BTC can pull back more before moving higher.

So far there has been zero reaction to the halving event taking place.

$SOXL

Semi bubble appears to be bursting and it is lead by the biggest bubbles over the last year from $NVDA and $SMCI.

This is a 3 X leveraged position too, which is evident from all the panic requests I get for this chart.

If you play with leverage, you need to be prepared for the violent moves

Going bullish leveraged when a market is correcting is not the right move to make.

$FUTU

An investment bank in China is also looking much stronger than US stocks right now.

Still above its 50 and 200 Day MA with a Golden cross here too.

The blue line needs to be flipped to support at $57 first before an attempt can be made to break out of this wedge at $61.

This will be very interesting to see, especially if the Mega Caps in the US continue their decline.

$BIDU

Large Chinese Tech stocks have not shown yet that they are reversing while the US market is correcting but there is one very obvious difference:

Large US tech stocks have clearly reached their Wave 5 and new ATH's but large Chinese stocks are nowhere near their ATH's but approaching their ATL's.

So both are not, in any way synced together in the same trend.

The big question is...

$NFLX

$NFLX is down -8% after reporting a stellar earnings report and huge growth but it is tangled in the market decline and I believe the strong report was already baked into the price action before the earnings release.

We also have this completing Wave 5 here too, so there is no surprise to see this decline.

I have added in the ABC correction too if it continues to follow the market ...

$LI - RC -

$LI is down -8.5% today and this is an Chinese company that has been executing perfectly and excelling. So if $LI is struggling, I suspect $XPEV and $NIO will feel it too.

$LI has not broken down yet from its structure but going below the blue line at $24.39 will be an alarm bell, because a company performing so well and still getting killed from its share price means that there is a larg...

$QCOM - RC -

I have added in the ABC count now for $QCOM after Wave 5 hit the 2.27 Fib and rejected again attempting to hit this level in March.

Since then the price has also lost its 50 Day MA and moving in sync with the market too.

Wave A as always is set at the 0.38 Fib or 200 Day MA as standard, with the correction due to complete towards the end of the year.

SILVER - SAFE HAVEN -

I want to add to my Silver position but I feel that once $30 is tested, there will be an subwave abc correction next and a pull back to between $27 - $26 and this is where I will be adding.

Although I am very happy with my Silver performance, I believe the move has yet to really take off and the $30 level can be flipped to support soon over the next few weeks.

I will alert when I ad...

$AMD TOP 20

I have white circled an area now between the 0.618 Fib and the 200 Day MA between $144 - $136 where I believe there will be a hold before $136 and a relief bounce, even if this is not Wave 5 and it is something I will take advantage off.

I can't invalidate $AMD as long as it stays above the amber line, which is the top of Wave 1.

But this is starting to look oversold now.

$UNH

So why was I bullish on the healthcare sector in spite of the obvious general market topping out....because their charts were not following each other and $UNH is a perfect example.

$UNH consolidated for 2 years in this tight band and then the market rallied for the first 3 months of 2024, $UNH declined fairly aggressively.

$UNH is now moving exactly in opposite step to the $QQQ and...

$DAL

I will be honest, it is remarkable to see how a cyclical and in the airline industry is holding a lot stronger than the Mega Caps.

So we need to remember that the Mega Caps have all completed their Wave 5's and topped, while many other large caps in S&P 500 are nowhere near completing their impulse wave.

That being said, I am staying on alert here because $DAL has not been able ...

$NVDA

I spoke yesterday about $NVDA losing its 50 Day MA next being a strong possibility and that is what we got today, coupled with the Mega Caps hurting today, the $QQQ is down heavy.

They all appear to be moving in sync now which is great to see, so this tells us that it is a market pull back and not that any particular company is struggling.

So this is where opportunities arise.

$META

This is a rare sight.

Seeing $META lose its 50 Day MA.

The last time this was lost was in October 2023 but was quickly regained and went on a parabolic rally.

This certainly needs to calm down and I suspect it pulls back as shown with the market.

The 200 Day MA is all the way down at $365 too, so a lot of movement could be expected.

$SHOP

$SHOP has been moving like clock work for us and has found support on the 200 Day MA so far which is ideal for Wave A to complete here and get a relief bounce for Wave B next.

The market certainly felt a lot of pain this week so a short term rally will be needed shortly and as long as $SHOP holds the 200 Day MA, then it can benefit from this, I believe it has moved ahead of the Mega Caps ...

$SQQQ

The drop on the $QQQ looks a lot more severe than the bounce here for the $SQQQ and it is a clear bounce and clear sign of a reversal but not retest yet.

On the $QQQ the drop has been so strong that it looks like a retest of the 50 Day MA from below may not come but the Mega Caps start reporting from next week so they will have the influence to bounce the market back to retest.

I do...

$AMZN TOP 20

What a difference a week has made for $AMZN, from making a new ATH at $189, to losing the 50 Day MA today below $177.

$AMZN needed to make a new ATH with all of the Mega Caps to make a Wave 5 and remarkably the timing was uncanny, as it has marked the top so far but in conjunction with a lot of negative catalysts too.

There is a long way to go here and earnings are due on the 30th o...

$HAL

$HAL continues to hold the Subwave 4 pullback level on the 200 Day MA and between the 0.38 - 0.5 Fib, as the conflict between Israel and Iran reemerged during the night.

We will see if this is the start of the end to the conflict but any ongoing escalation will positively affect the price of oil and this means that $HAL and $OXY will move up next as shown.

$HAL is high on my list ri...

$CELH - RC -

I have added in the ABC correction for $CELH now.

Following the market nicely and has lost the 50 Day MA convincingly.

$CELH has a strong following, so a decline down to the Wave C target at $50 may be very attractive to some members.

Let know if this is a stock you would consider at $50?

$MSFT TOP 20

$MSFT is sinking hard today

Down another -1.5% today with a total of -5.5% in 4 days now.

Once the 50 Day MA was lost, this trigger a lot of selling

$384 is the next level to watch for me but this is great to see, market can move down when the big four remaining start correcting

$AMD TOP 20 - LONG TERM PROJECTION -

I believe $AMD is planning for its long term future and will no doubt continue on its positive trajectory for the next 5 year as shown.

Any pull backs experienced this year is an opportunity to add for long term.

We first started buying at $102 on the retest of the 50 and 200 MA on the weekly chart.

I am happy to wait for Wave 3 to complete at $315.

$PYPL TOP 20

$PYPL kissed the 50 Day MA today at $62 and held, this level needs to hold here or the pull back infringes on the subwave 1 bounce and this can not happen in an impulse wave.

$PYPL has showed a lot of fight to hold up considering the pressure since CPI came in hot.

But losing the 50 and 200 Day MA will certainly delay a break into the bull case.

As long as it holds here, there...

$AAL - WATCHLIST -

$AAL I believe is lagging $DAL, $JBLU and $UAL now.

And usually $AAL moves very well with $DAL and $UAL as they are considered the big three and have very similar business models due to their exposure to international travel.

$DAL has started its move already but $AAL has not.

The price action is just testing the 200 Day MA now at $14, flipping this to support and $AAL is in a...

$JBLU

$JBLU is holding very well in this ascending traingle.

We know that Carl Icahn has been buying this up at the start of the year but it appears that someone has been buying this up considerably as this consolidates.

$DAL is also on the cusp of breakout out and $JBLU could too with a break above $7.50

Next target would be $9.35.

$ETH

$BTC halving event is tomorrow which shouldn't effect $ETH but it is likely to feel any substantial reactions.

The market is showing a perfect 3 wave pull back now, holding on the 0.5 Fib.

Really we couldn't ask for a better set up before a known catalyst is above to come out.

So what do I think will happen?

If Whales sell the news tomorrow when the event happens, $BTC a...

$ABNB TOP 20

$ABNB has so far survived its $155 test very successfully too.

$ABNB and $DAL appear to be moving in sync which bodes well for my portfolio because I have a large holding in both.

50 Day MA has been recaptured here again, so what we want to see next is a break above the previous high at $170.

Mega Caps rotating into these large caps is clearly occuring right now as the market ...

$CURE - WATCHLIST -

$CURE has done a lot here and given us what we have been waiting long enough for.

Price has now pulled back to the strong confluence level of the 200 Day MA and the 0.5 Fib at $101.

With $UNH absolutely ripping since its earnings, $CURE could be dragged up with this sector momentum.

I think $CURE should be on everyones watchlist right now..

I will alert if I add.

<...

$TSM

Earnings reported today and there was a very slight miss on revenue and the market was not kind at the opening, slight recovery now but crucially, the 0.38 Fib was retested and held exactly at $130.

As always for wave 4's, you want to see the 0.38 Fib held, as long as this is held, the price can move higher to complete Wave 5.

The Semi sector really struggled yesterday and I believe...

$CLSK

Ok impressive here.

Bulls needed to bounce on this green line and $CLSK is up 10% today giving the exact response that was needed.

The 50 Day MA needs to be flipped now at $17 to get out of the danger zone

Like I said in my previous upload, we saw $COIN manage to hold its invalidation line for Wave 5 and it soared afterwards, let's see if $CLSK can do that.

Halving event...

$PLTR TOP 20

$PLTR has not convincingly held at any support yet and is working its way down to the 0.618 Fib at $20.16.

Remember this is not a wave 4 pull back, where we normally expect wave 4's to pull back to the 0.38 Fib.

This is a wave 2 pull back, so we typically see the pull back to between the 0.5 - 0.618 Fib....with the 0.618 Fib being the sweet spot.

The 200 Day MA is also moving ...

$HOOD

$HOOD has so far found support on the confluence level of the 0.38 Fib and the 50 Day MA leaving a reversal wick behind it too.

I think if $HOOD can recapture its 0.236 Fib level at $16.11 and hold, there is strong signs of a reversal here to complete Wave 5.

Very nice structure here so far but the price needs to stay above the 0.38 Fib now.