The Long Investor

$MSFT TOP 20

$MSFT has not moved in over a month now and it has been the silent giant in the room.

It is not breaking down or moving higher and holding onto the 2.618 Fib.....I suspect earnings at the end of April will have something to say about this.

I believe the market correcting comes down to only a small number of players and $MSFT pulling back, along with $NVDA and maybe one other like $A...

$GOOG TOP 20

$GOOG is the only Mega Cap now moving against the crowd which I do not believe is sustainable.

I have highlighted the white circle in Sept-Nov 2023 where the corrective wave made a higher high before going lower to make a lower low to complete Wave 4.

I believe this is what is happening here too.

This is a chart I could be wrong on because it managed to hold above its ATH line...

$INTC TOP 20

$INTC was uploaded during the week to highlight the negative catalyst from China, which said that Telecom carriers should phase out foreign chips such as $INTC and $AMD.

I believe $INTC took this harder as $AMD has not lost its Wave 4 level or its 200 Day MA....whereas $INTC has lost the 200 Day MA and the 0.5 Fib, the 0.618 Fib really needs to come to the defence of the bulls or the $34 ...

$F TOP 20

$F got dragged down with the cyclicals this week but managed the hold above the 50 Day MA and comfortably above the 200 Day MA too.

Back into the bullish channel to ride this uncertain wave in the market.

I still expect $F to move within this larger yellow wedge and the trend still favours the bulls right now.

But $F will not want interest rates to stay high for the rest of th...

$DIS TOP 20

$DIS also falls into the camp of - no changes - this week, as we have already concluded that Wave 5 is complete and this is into Wave A....in spite of not losing the 50 Day MA just yet. But the impulse count leading to the the rejection at Wave 5 has been so clear and obvious, that I am happy to call that this is in Wave A now.

No changes to $DIS and I expect this to continue as shown for...

$COST TOP 20

I want to focus on the big movers this weekend and very little has changed here from $COST this week.

I believe this is comfortably in Wave A now and although it is a very strong and reliable company, there is little growth in share price expected after running so hot for the last 12 months.

A pull back is welcomed from everyone here, to add and cool the price down.

$BTC TOP 20

Ok big drop from $BTC the moment Iran declared that they had sent drones towards Israel and unfortunately when an asset like this is trading 24/7 it takes the brunt of any global volatility immediately.

Since then Iran have said they have concluded their retaliation but unfortunately reports have come out that Israel are expected to retaliate.......(so they are retaliating to the retaliat...

$BABA TOP 20

$BABA continues to stay tight within this range between $77 and $71 and traders must be really enjoying trading this up and down.

$BABA was less than a 1% jump away from testing the channel breakout on Friday but got swept into the sea of red which is likely down to the concerns in the middle east and not the US market itself.

$BABA still finished the week above the blue support lin...

$AMD TOP 20

It is worth showing the larger picture here for $AMD and show where this structure began at the end of 2021.

We can clearly see the Cup and Handle formation and our Wave 4 level now is testing the breakout level again at $160.

So holding above this level is important and the price finished the week at $163.

Once this level is held, the price can still continue higher to our Wa...

$ABNB TOP 20

Cyclicals and every other sector bare bonds did not escape the red sea this week as there was back to back concerning catalysts hitting the market from every angle.

High CPI, troubling earnings, Silver and Gold exploding and geopolitical tensions took their toll.

But no breakdown from its structure here from $ABNB, it pulled back but did not test its 50 Day MA or its ascending trian...

$AMZN TOP 20

$AMZN eventually hit its $188 target this week after an outstanding push from the Bulls. This means that all Mega Caps and the $SPY and $QQQ have all reached new highs over the last 12 months.

Wave 5's commonly finish above their previous high, which is a signature move of an impulse wave....it could have finished lower but this is extremely rare.

Price action managed to finish belo...

$AAPL TOP 20

As always we start with the market leader and right now, it is showing why it has been the long standing leader for the last 20 years in the market. It is weeks, if not months ahead of the market and Mega Caps right now....having completed Wave 5 on the 14th of Dec.

I believe Wave A is complete now and the bounce we saw this week - in spite of one of the most volatile weeks over the last...

Results of the Opinion Poll

First of all, thank you to all who contributed and took part in the Opinion Poll, it has given me some great insights into what is working and what can be improved.

Few observations:

1. People want more charts from the Top 20 list

2. More Lessons and Learning sources was the second most popular request, which is something I love to see. 2024-04-13 13:17:17 +0000 UTC View Post

$BA

I am an Airbus man so it gives me some pleasure to see Airbus beating Boeing in the market but make no mistake....this pull back for $BA is not a long term problem....there are really only two major players in this sector, Boeing and Airbus and both have back orders until 2030.

Airlines are crying out for Aircrafts and pilots to keep up with demand and wages continue to move higher.

$MELI - NOTE -

$MELI, $SHOP and $AAPL have been model charts for us.

All hit Wave 5 and without much of a fight, they proceeded to Wave A in a controlled manner.

$SHOP has nearly hit its 200 Day MA and $AAPL I believe is in Wave B now....no surprises and moving as expected.

$MELI hit its 200 Day MA today and finished the week on this level.

I would not be surprised to see a move shortl...

$NVDA

$NVDA is going to play a very important role on the markets direction next.

It's market cap is above $2.2 Trillion now, making it bigger than $AMZN and many of the other MEGA Caps and it has not broken down yet, as there was a test of the 50 Day MA this week and bounced.....but rejected today at the 2.618 Fib again exactly at $901.

So we need more information here

As always, l...

$CURE - WATCHLIST -

There were a lot of charts this year we were waiting for a pull back and many believed they would never come and all of sudden this week they all come together.

Lets remember that after every strong move, there is ALWAYS a pull back.

$CURE being the perfect example here, we waited since Jan for this pull back and today we get a pull back to the 0.5 Fib and 200 Day MA and it has held...

$CLSK

$CLSK has remarkably held the triangle and the Wave 4 level all week and today, in spite of a large flush to Cryptos and miners today.

The green line at $13.70 is the invalidation line for Wave 4 and is not under threat yet.

Still 5 more days until the halving event so the games may not be over yet but that was a violent flush down today for $BTC and $ETH.

Still a battle betwe...

$DAL

All Top 20 charts will be uploaded on Sunday evening and we'll thoroughly go through the events of this week, so ill finish up this Friday with some regular stocks outside of the Top 20.

$DAL has managed to hold its structure this week and has used the 20 Day MA at $46.16 as support to end the week.

There is no breakout above the yellow trend line at the 1 Fib at $48.70, so we need ...

$JPM

$JPM is pulling back hard today after reporting earnings and down -5.5% but we can see on the chart that this was a rejection at the 1.618 Fib for Wave 3 and pulling back for Wave 4 now.

We can see that the blue line, which was the 2021 high aligns very close to the 0.38 Fib at $171, this is where I would expect $JPM to hold for support for Wave 4.

$JPM will likely benefit greatly f...

$AFRM

$AFRM is in a very tight descending wedge and holding on the 0.5 fib at $32 for Wave 4.

It has a small bit of room to move lower to the 0.618 Fib at $28 to hold and still be valid for Wave 4.

The 200 Day MA is also at the wedge apex too ar $29 too.

$AFRM, $PYPL, $SQ, $SOFI are all in the same scenario....they need to catch a break.

$PLTR TOP 20

I am monitoring what is happening in the middle east very closely and it is likely the reason for Oil stocks and $PLTR to be rising today.

Second bounce in the buy zone here and the price has broken above the 50 MA on the 1hr chart which has been a resistance level since the 4th of April.

Conflict in the middle east benefits $PLTR as they are used by the Israeli Army and since this ...

$UNH - WATCHLIST -

$UNH has lost a critical support level today on the blue line, a support level that was held 6 times since the start of 2022.

I believe this is still Wave 4 and a hold on the 0.38 Fib at $417 would confirm this for me.

A hold here for me and I am a buyer too.

I have admired $UNH for a long time

I like its fundamentals, its moat, its RSI at 24 and how the price consolidat...

$ADA - WATCHLIST -

$ADA is now on my watchlist to buy and a high priority as it slowly drifting down the 0.5 Fib at $0.51....price action and the 200 Day MA look like they will both be meeting each other at this level, so a lot is aligning here.

This can move quickly, so lets me on alert.

$AMD TOP 20

$AMD is down -4.5% today after China instructed Tech companies in China not to use chips from $AMD and $INTC, this is a further escalation and a retaliation to the US embargo on some of their $NVDA chips selling to China.

Odd that the US would expect not retaliation to this.

Either way, $160 is the level to watch on the 0.5 Fib....losing this line will certainly show weakness and th...

$HAL - REMINDER -

As a reminder, I have a position in $HAL because the chart is looking primed for a test of the blue line again at $44 and I like this set up, also they have strong fundamentals

If this price action breaks above $44 and holds, the bull case is triggered and Wave 3 is confirmed.

OIL companies are up today, notably $OXY at 2.5% because a number of reports have said that Iran inte...

$TLT - SAFE HAVEN -

Mean Reversion zone added here.

$TLT Bonds in terms of Risk v Reward favour the reward side here.

Monthly RSI is showing a bullish trend too.

20% jump to return to the Mean Reversion Zone

and 3.72% dividend.

$XBI - BIOTECH ETF - WATCHLIST -

$XBI rejected at the middle blue line which was a support level from 2020 but the price had run from $63 to $102, so a pull back was well overdue.....and this also gives holders an opportunity to add on this pull back.

So what we want to see here is a pull back to the channel trend line at $86 and holding or bouncing here.

We can see that the 200 Day MA is moving up to this level to...

$TLT - SAFE HAVEN -

Price action hit exactly on the 0.618 Fib yesterday and held and finished back in the descending wedge.

This is the level we want to see hold now.

Bonds have historically been the go to for institutions when the market declines as it is a safe preservation of capital, with a dividend.....but in 2020/2021 they failed to hold their value and declined with the market, which is uncommon...

$COPX - SAFE HAVEN -

$COPX is up +2% in the PM now which brings the price action exactly to the breakout level, which was the previous high back at the start of 2021 and 2022.

So a breakout and hold above $47.25 would be significant.

Zacks had this to say about about Copper yesterday:

'Why the Move?

Copper has been an area to watch lately, given the surge in the...