The Long Investor

$LINKUSD - RC -

$LINK has joined the other larger cryptos with its positive movement since October.

I believe there is still a lot more upside for many of the larger cryptos but a pull back should come first and we can see here that the 0.5 Fib is sitting on the 200 Day MA here.

A pull back in 3 waves here is what we want to see and holding between $13 - $11.

I suspect that $LINK will follow...

$BYON - RC -

No changes to the chart here but worth an update as Beyond has also broke out of its long wedge like $URBN.

A retest of the wedge breakout level between $30 -$31 and holding on the outside would be enough to show support and the First and Second targets above are in play at $47 and $66.

Comfortably above its 50 and 200 Day MA now but I would like to see a retest of he wedge before m...

$URBN - RC -

The now legacy american apparel companies are having a great year so far, lead my Abercrombie and we can see that Urban Outfitters is following suit.

Breakout of its 4 year wedge in Jan and above its 50 and 200 Day MA comfortably and moving  up to the First Target at $54.

Retest of the 50 Day MA this week with a weak market but a hold here could indicate a good opportunity to a...

$AFRM

$AFRM is at an interesting level now, tested the 0.5 Fib now and holding which is also the First Target too which can be seen as a support level at $32.

$AFRM and $PYPL are in the same situation right now, both are in a good position to bounce once they hold their support levels.

$PYPL for me is my preferred position as it is potentially starting its Wave 3, whereas $AFRM is going i...

HSI

This is how the HSI finished the week, with the perfect retest and hold on the bullish channel breakout line.

It also finished exactly on the green historical support line.

If there were concerns here, I would verbalise them but I can not create concerns when the chart has been doing what I have been expecting of it.

Next week we want to see a continuation of this momentum and...

$SQQQ - WATCHLIST -

I know some members are keen to buy the $SQQQ now, as we are seeing signs of the $QQQ rejecting but for me, it is still a little too early for confirmation. 

On the $SQQQ chart, we can see that the price action is above the 20 Day MA but has not tested the 50 Day MA yest at $12....I would need to see a flip of the $12 level to support before encouraging a buy here.

Also, we nee...

$CURE - WATCHLIST -

Members will know that I have liked $CURE for awhile now and we have followed this since its breakout of its wedge at the start of Jan, the 50 Day MA crossed bullishly through 200 Day MA and it jumped 20%, I wanted to see a retest of the wedge line or the 200 Day MA to start a position, as this is a 3 x leveraged position.

We are seeing some signs of a pull back now, so I have added in th...

$ETH

Fib levels and Crypto are a match made in heaven, with no fundamentals to guide crypto, technicals are the main driving force.

We can see that Wave 2 held on the 0.618 Fib in October, Wave 3 has so far rejected at the 2 Fib and now the price it has pulled back to the 1.618 Fib exactly, there will need to be a relief bounce shortly in order to pull back for the 3rd wave down to our Wave 4 ...

$QQQ TOP 20

I will be going into more detail over the weekend with $QQQ too but it is worth bringing to your attention that $QQQ has broken down from its ascending bearish wedge and does not look pretty now.

The price really struggled at the 1 Fib at $444 and tested it 3 times with 3 rejections.

$CLSK

I spoke about this in the Crypto group chat but we can see that $CLSK is green while the cryptos are deep red today.

They are not quite in sync right now and there is still 1 month to run before the halving event.

Price has held the 0.5 Fib 3 times now at $15 and the price action is back above the 200 MA on the 1hr chart.

The curve ball here is the unorthodox Head and Shoulder...

$NIO TOP 20

Very difficult week for the EV sector, particularly $TSLA and $FSR, so it was unlikely the time where $NIO breaks out of its 10 month downward trend in this wedge.

We wanted the pull back to hold the blue line at $5.83, which has been a bull/bear flip line since the start of this year.

What we do see is that the price held the 0.5 Fib exactly at $5.56 instead.....respecting Fib leve...

$ABNB TOP 20

Slight pull back to start the day but we have seen this a number of times for $ABNB this week, where it sells at the opening and then recovers to finish the day.

Bullish wedge formed here too.

A pull back to between $158 - $156 is still possible here to test the breakout level for support, it is not needed but we saw it happen with $DAL too, a hold at $156 and i'll add again.

$AMZN TOP 20

I will be discussing $AMZN in more detail over the weekend when we complete the Top 20 review but it is interesting to have a quick look at this, in case anyone was considering adding going into the weekend.

PPI came in hot this week and we saw a rush to the old reliables in the form of the Mega Caps but today we can see that this was short lived and the selling continues for these Mega C...

$PFE

Watching for a potential double bottom here with $PFE, after almost 2 years of decline, it is showing signs of leveling off and curving higher.

The price is now above the 50 Day MA too, having found support on this level too.

There is very little in the way of this moving back up to its 200 Day MA at $32.

$PFE has had a difficult time in the post Covid world and have had a num...

$TLT - SAFE HAVEN -

$TLT broke above its 200 Day MA last week and today on the retest it has not held above so this is back down to test the Fib levels for support before making another attempt at the 200 Day MA.

The 0.5 Fib is at $91.50 and the 0.618 Fib is at $89.30.....I think if $TLT can be bought on the 0.618 Fib, members should consider DCA'ing here. 

$SE TOP 20

Green today and on a difficult day for the market, this shows the strength of this move lately as it continues to reach for our Wave 1 target.

It is not a buy here for me until Wave 2 comes in and pulls back to at least the 0.5 Fib at $50, if Wave 1 completes at the green line at $67.

Almost a 100% jump from the red bottom line, where it found support 6 times before bouncing. <...

$BIDU - PRIORITY -

$BIDU is also retesting its breakout level from its descending wedge, a hold here comfortably and I will consider adding to my position shortly.

$BIDU and $LULU are high on my buy list right now.

Price action is also staying above the 200 MA on the 1hr chart too.

So a hold above $104.80 and I will consider this a buy.

$ETH

Firm rejection now at the 2 Fib at the $4000 mark which I think we can all agree has been coming, it remains to be seen whether or not we are in Wave 4 now but if there is a bounce to a lower high, followed by a lower low, we can assume that Wave 4 is in effect.

I believe buying $ETH at our Wave 4 level on the 0.38 Fib at  $3100 presents a great buying opportunity for us and somethin...

$YINN

Pull backs are all part of the process, they held us identify new, higher support levels and they give us an opportunity to add to our position again.

This is how you treat pull backs in an upward trend.

$YINN is still not at its 50 or 200 MA with this pull back either and we mentioned yesterday that a pull back was coming.

Stay the course.

$TSLA TOP 20

The EV sector continues to feel the heat and its a bad day all round.

$FSR is looking like it is losing its fight for survival, $NIO and $XPEV are suffering and $TSLA has now dropped out of its falling wedge....bulls may be conceding this right now and waiting for a lower price to come in before getting in.

$152 is the next test for me, failing to hold support here and the price is ...

$OXY - WATCHLIST -

$OXY has now converted the 200 Day MA to support finally after a month toying with it and is now testing the top trend line of this large wedge.

We have been bullish on $OXY for some time now and it moves incredibly slow, it is also a firm favourite of Buffetts too and I have highlighted the Buffett buy zone on the chart.

A break above $63 and $OXY is out of the wedge, so staying ab...

$DAL

Getting the retest now on the $42.70 breakout level, the 50 MA on the 1 hr chart is also here to offer support too.

As long as the price holds this level or makes a higher low then we have the perfect retest of a breakout level and we can confirm that $42.70 is the new higher support level.

Certainly an add here for me then if this is confirmed.

$DAL has rarely put a foot wron...

$PYPL TOP 20

In a sea of red, $PYPL is green and gets the continuation on from yesterday and moving well.

Testing the infamous 1.618 Fib level today at $64.20, which was the first resistance level back in December and has moved sideways since.

Breaking above this level and more importantly, holding above this level and $PYPL will have reversed for me.

Above the red channel and the 50 and 2...

$CVS - WATCHLIST -

One of our eagle eyed members highlighted this last night in the chat group so I decided to look at it, to see if I can confirm what he sees and I believe he is onto something.

A very clean and tight wedge here and the possible start of Wave 3 now if the price can breakout of this wedge.

The 50 Day MA is also at the wedge line too at $76, so this is an important confluence level, so...

$LULU - WATCHLIST -

We are starting to see some nice movements here, I just uploaded the $ZS chart explaining what I am waiting for next there, a series of higher highs and higher lows and that is what we are seeing on the $LULU chart right now, after possibly completing Wave 4.

We can see clearly that the 50 Day MA is the big resistance level here at $468 and the price action could not stay above this level...

HSI

Nice clean breakout through the channel and above the green historical support line now and it looks like we will get a retest shortly of this breakout area.

The price is above the 50 and 200 MA on the 1hr chart here, so a retest down to the green line, where the 50 MA is right now, is what I am looking for, possibly tomorrow or Monday.

I spoke yesterday about the need of a retest t...

$ZS - WATCHLIST -

I keep getting drawn back to this because the chart is looking very inviting.

I like the Wave 2 hold and the long consolidation before it broke out, how it hit the Wave 3 target exactly at the 1.618 Fib at $259 and how it has pulled back in 3 waves now for Wave 4.

Wave 4 is also holding the 0.5 Fib with a nice test and bounce.

All indications are where they should be now for W...

$ONON

We wanted the dip after earnings down to the 200 Day MA to get this cheaper but we were presented with a very aggressive flush down to between the 0.78 - 0.887 Fib and also held the bottom of the wedge too.

This was an opportunity I could not ignore and added, which was the plan before earnings if this opportunity presented itself, so I stuck to the strategy

The price action has jum...

$BABA TOP 20

$BABA is approaching its neck line again at $77.80, the red line has been a difficult level for $BABA to break out from and has not been able to stay above this level since November, so flipping this line to support is a significant development for the bulls.

A solid flip of support on this level and I am adding to my position again. 

Support Confirmation

Risk is reduced when you buy on a retest of support  

This is hard to do because most investors aim to buy before a breakout, in order to maximise the potential returns  

Fake breakouts are very common and so are stop loss raids  

Waiting for confirmation of a support after a break out is the key to lowering risk.  

Best way to confirm a support level...