The Long Investor

$PYPL TOP 20

In terms of risk v reward, $PYPL is a comfortable buy here in the buy zone and a position I will look at adding this week with sustained strength.

After such a strong reaction today, there will likely be some cooling tomorrow and this will allow a nice entry point if you are not comfortable chasing today and I typically don't suggest you do.

However, we are deep in the buy zone and ...

$GOOG TOP 20

All of the Mega Caps are bouncing now at the very least for a Wave B bounce.

$GOOG and the $QQQ did drop below its 2021 high so please be on high alert for a rejection in the Wave B range at the 50 WMA which is at $174 now

My count has not changed, this is the dominant and likely count here.

The Tariffs have not gone way, this is a pause and the Tariffs are still in place for ...

$NVDA

What a response.

No changes to the chart here and we can see that price has already bounced up to the 0.38 Fib level already at $111.

A Wave B bounce has 3 waves in it, assuming this is now the first wave, then we still have two more to go and it would be extremely uncommon to be completed over a few sessions too

The 50 WMA aligning with the wedge yellow resistance/support lin...

US 10 YR

Oh my.

So the bullish triangle, with a pull back in 3 waves, holding on the 0.78 Fib has now bounced higher, broken back out of the wedge and shot up above the 50 and 200 Day MA.

This is looking like a very bullish stock now.

A retest and hold on the outside of the triangle at 4.22% and the market will be under pressure.

$SIRI

$SIRI and $OXY get a lot of attention because when Buffett was selling overvalued positions like $AAPL and $BAC, he was adding $SIRI and $OXY, both of these adds are below his buy zone but do we think Buffett is concerned buy this?

No.

It makes zero difference to him.

He evaluated that they were undervalued and added, and just because the price is lower he will believe he is...

$ETH

I have not hidden the fact I am bullish on $ETH and any price below the 200 WMA is a strong buy from me and that price is at $2450 now.

We can see on the RSI on the Weekly chart above that this is in a clear oversold territory right now and below 30

The last 2 times $ETH was this low was in 2019 and 2022, it also market the end of its large correction and reversed incredibly higher....

$BAC

Buffett warned the market to get out of banking stocks over the last 9 months and greatly reduced his position in $BAC.

Price has already fallen from $48 to $33 today and is sitting on its own 0.618 Fib.

I have added in the larger red fib support levels which align with the 2009 low and the 2022 high to show what is the worst case scenario (or best case for some) and a price of $20...

SILVER TOP 10 - SAFE HAVEN -

Slowly moving itself back up again after giving everyone a heart attack last week.

Price is back up above the $30 level again and the blue line and we can see that the price action is moving towards the 200 Day MA at $30.88

We want this MA flipped back to support, a hold on this level and it is a buy entry too.

You will effectively be getting Silver at its May '24 level, so I ...

$HIMS

Yesterday we saw a retest of the blue support line at $25.40 and now another strong reaction today above this level and now above the the 200 Day MA with a quick test of this level at the opening at $26.20

This is what we like to see, higher support levels getting tested and held.

Price is still in the channel and below the 0.618 Fib at $29.54, I would like to see this important Fib...

$BTC TOP 20

$BTC has come within $1000 of touching its own 0.38 fib at $73,400 and is just sitting on its 50 WMA now as we lead into the market opening again.

I believe this will follow the market higher to complete Wave B and reject here too and fall back down to complete Wave C

Also, if $BTC breaks below $74k then the melt up scenario to $123k does not play out either, this is same situation ...

$OSCR TOP 10

The bottom of the wedge is under threat now as the market sell off intensifies.

Just to make sure everyone is in the loop, here is the chart again.

Wedge bottom line is at: $11.40

The 200 WMA is at $10.80

And

The Standard pull back level on the 0.618 Fib is at $10.29.

Three important support levels, a hold on either level will encourage me to add one more ti...

$NVDA

I am keen to add to $NVDA to catch Wave B but the market is showing a lot of volatility right now

That being said, the price is just sitting on the 0.38 Fib at $94.

This ABC correction I am showing aligns with my view with $AAPL, as the full correction worst case scenario and they are both aligning their Wave A pull backs with the 0.38 Fib which is the standard pull back level we wa...

$AAPL TOP 20

$AAPL chart is getting beaten up.

Price is already below its 200 WMA, it has dropped from $260 to $169 and this company is heavily exposed to the US V CHINA Trade War as the majority of their production is made in China.

What's most alarming now is that its price action is moving in line with a correction that aligns with the low of 2008 and a high of 2024, which is a full cycle, me...

$SPY TOP 20

The fade yesterday has certainly sent some shockwaves in the market, what looked like a positive reaction at the start of the session to an oversold market and positions, quickly turned sour as a constant flow of negative news headlines came out between the US and China when the +104% Tariffs came into effect.

Price dropped as low as $489 too.

Just so everyone is up to date:

A...

$BABA TOP 10 & TOP 20

Price dropped below the 200 WMA yesterday to $97 after the +104% Tariff came into effect

China stepped up measures to support its economy then immediately and have signaled that they are open to boosting consumption

Hong Kong Exchange reacted very well and it was reported that a record of HK$35.6 was pumped into the HSI today.

$BABA was the big winner on the HSI exchange and ...

$IWM

$IWM is now within touching distance of the $170 level, which was a very strong support level since 2022 and was tested multiples times and held very well.

This weakness is taking its toll on small caps now and losing the $170 level and more importantly rejecting below this level and $IWM can fall down to the standard 0.618 Fib at $152.

$ONON

Simple update, price has struggled on the 0.618 Fib at $39 so the lower fib support level comes into play at $32 if $39 is not held.

$NKE is still not finding its feet either

Both I believe will be great opportunities once the bleeding stops.

$SPY TOP 20

Quick update on the $SPY, the price bounced from $481 and hit $524 today and the market was looking very optimistic.

And then at midnight Beijing time, the Trump reciprocal tariff kicked in which is a +104% increase tariff on Chinese imports....and this really affected the market and the bounce faded and we are likely going to turn red next....at one stage the market was up +4% which is n...

$NVO

There is still a concern that Trump includes Pharma stocks in his tariffs so this has likely caused $NVO to stay down lately but I can clearly see 5 waves down in this Wave A pull back and it has been deep to the 0.618 Fib

I believe at the very least there will be a Wave B bounce here next and again we would be looking at the 50 WMA as the target here which is in between the 0.5 - 0.618 F...

$GOOG TOP 20

$GOOG is bouncing today but is not as strong as many of the other Mega Caps

And I think the big concern here is the clear death cross between the 50 and 200 Day MA's today

But we know this is immaterial because we believe this is a Wave B bounce and there will be a lower low after Wave B is complete Wave C and the death cross further confirms this

I am also considering a posit...

$SG

Also caught up in the sell off this week but the structure has stayed in place and the price is already back up above the 0.618 Fib now

I have shared a lot of charts today with this very same set up.

Again, if $SG can hold above the 0.618 Fib then a reversal is on here too back to the blue line at $39 next.

A lot of opportunities are starting to open up here if the market can ...

$AFRM

$AFRM is also looking strong in the PM now along with with many positions and the other finance stocks.

We can see that there has been a harsh sell off since the $80's and the price action has pulled back in 3 waves and went below the 0.618 Fib, so this would imply that Wave C can be complete now.

Price is also back above the 0.618 Fib support level now too at $37, a hold back above...

$ACHR

$ACHR rejected at the 50 Day MA and pulled back to the 0.618 Fib this week as a result of the market weakness and was caught up in the sell off

We can see that the price dipped below the 200 Day MA and hit the bottom of the wedge, price is already back above this support level now but still in the wedge

So no reversal confirmed yet but I think all holders are happy to see this keep ...

$QQQ TOP 20

Very similar set up here for the $QQQ as the $SPY but with one clear difference....the price action pulled back below the 2021 high yesterday which is a bit of a concern for those who think the $QQQ can make a higher high next before the ABC correction

So we are continuing with this count above which we have been following for the last year or so.

Wave B I believe can come next, esp...

$OXY

$OXY dropping down below the trend line at $44 is something we spoke about last week and a move down to the 0.618 Fib was possible, I also shared yesterday that $OXY is a buy at $34 too which is the 0.618 Fib.

I really like the premium on offer at this level compared to where Buffett added between $50-$55 and there is also a +2.5% dividend here too.

So not a buy yet, wait until $34 ...

$AAL

$AAL is another legacy sector leader that is at historical lows and all the way at its 0.887 Fib, which is taken from the GFC '08 Low and the 2018 High, this is in the middle of completing its full 17 year economic cycle.

It is a cyclical stock and effectively mimics consumer sentiment towards the economy.

Can it go down to the 2008 low, yes that can't be ruled out but can it also r...

$PLTR TOP 20

So far we have been calling this pull back price by price very well....the price action dropped down to the 0.5 Fib yesterday at $66 and held.

This is a Wave C complete level but Wave C looks a little short to me and a drop down to $51 on the 0.618 Fib is still possible.

$66 would not have enticed me to add $PLTR, not with their fundamentals, especially under this current climate. 2025-04-08 10:16:13 +0000 UTC View Post

$AMZN TOP 20

$AMZN did not make it all the way down to the 200 WMA at $153 but it did pull back to its 0.5 Fib and the weekly RSI is at 30 right now.

Nobody needs to convince me to buy $AMZN in this set up, even if it is only for a Wave B as a worst case scenario.

I have added $AMZN twice now and again we will be looking for a retest of the 50 WMA at $195 for Wave B.

If the price action ca...

$SOFI

So far the pull back has been to the standard 0.618 Fib and we can see that the price is holding at this level in the PM now at $10

In terms of a pull back level, this is standard......my one concern here and it's subjective, is that the pull back since $18 has pulled back in 5 waves, arguably you could say 3 waves, which I have labeled here but someone with bearish glasses on could quite...

$NVDA

Same chart I have added here yesterday but I know many will consider a position here shortly as the market is a healthy green in the PM and many will think we are in Wave B now

There has not even been 24hrs since the market was expecting Black Monday yesterday but many are optimistic now, and I see the reason, a lot of the Mega Caps are due a Wave B bounce and that is why I have been addi...