The Long Investor

$COST TOP 20

$COST pushed higher this week and although the Wave 4 is valid because there are 3 waves visible (circled in white) it was very weak and did not even make it to the 0.236 Fib or the 50 Day MA which was above the 0.38 Fib too.

I still believe there is 10% on the table here to $710 for Wave 5 but above the second target level here now, so this is not somewhere where I would advise chasing.<...

$BTC TOP 20

Large sell off post ETF approval may have triggered Wave 4 here.

As always we set Wave 3 at the 1.618 Fib and this was at $50980 and the price climbed to $49010 post approval and then sell the news event occured.

So this is reflected on the chart now.

Good news is that this Wave 4 is already halfway complete and as always, we have Wave 4 completing at the 0.38 Fib and here it ...

$BABA TOP 20

$BABA is mirroring the HS Index and I believe when this index bounces or reverses then so will $BABA, we are approaching earnings season for the Tech Giants and this could be the catalyst we have been waiting for and need.

$BABA remains in this bullish descending wedge and although it is frustrating to see a stock like this so undervalued and suppressed, it does not concern me.

It c...

$AMZN TOP 20

If $AMZN has completed its Subwave 2 of Wave 5 at the start of the year then it was slightly on the weak side but the 50 Day MA provided a strong support for them.

Not enough of a pull back for me to add to my position, so I left my potential $AMZN allocation in $GOOG which is now up 9%.

So sometimes it is good to stay in cash and sometimes it is good to keep your money in a stock t...

$AMD TOP 20

$AMD has not been as disciplined as $ABNB and although it has pulled back to the June High, it has bounced very well, as Semi's enjoyed a strong week.

The Taiwanese elections may play some part on this sector at the opening tomorrow, if it negatively effects the sector, we could see a leg down next to our Wave C target at the 0.5 Fib at $122.

Any price at $122 or below is a buy for ...

$ABNB TOP 20

$ABNB continues to be a gem, bounced on the 0.5 Fib to complete Wave A and rejecting so far at the 0.236 Fib for Wave B, rejecting here twice so far, as long as this continues to behave as we expect, I see a pull back for Wave C next and we can see that the 200 Day MA is drifting towards our Wave C target now.

I will start a position in $ABNB when I see support on the 200 Day MA or the 0....

$AAPL TOP 20

I am not seeing a bearish set up here and I am seeing an opportunity.

Investors can wait months for $AAPL to pull back in an uptrend to the 200 Day MA or close to the 0.618 Fib to buy but when it happens, do people buy?.....generally they don't but smart money will and then the retail investor comes in.

This is one such situation.

I believe $AAPL breaks above the blue line aga...

$BIDU - WATCHLIST -

$BIDU 

Share Price:

2011: $110 

2024: $109  

Yearly Revenue:

2011: $1.16 Billion 

2024: $18 Billion  

Revenue right now is 15.5 times greater then it was in 2011 and both share prices are exactly t...

$ETHUSD

3 Wave pull back here on the 1hr chart and holding exactly at the 0.5 Fib which is just sitting above the 50 Day MA.

I have been expecting one more leg up to $2933 at the 1.618 Fib to complete Wave 3 and this is looking like it is ready to move up to finish Wave 3.

I may add to my position over the next 24hrs if I continue to see support at this level.

$MSFT - LONG PROJECTION -

2.5 year projection for $MSFT.

I have $MSFT topping out the yellow trend line over the next 2 months or so and then pulling back to the Green Fib levels below, preferably to the 0.618 Fib at $290, a pull back and hold here and then this is into Wave 3 which is set at $558 by mid 2025.

Long term, I don't see any weakness here for $MSFT, they have been resilient over a long period of ...

$LULU

Rejecting at the 1.618 Fib for Wave 3 is as standard as you are going to get from an impulse wave count.

A healthy pull back here for Wave 4, down to the 1 Fib at $420 or the 200 Day MA which is moving up to meet this level will be the area for us to watch.

I do not want to see it hold the 50 Day MA at $457.

Holding at $420 and I think this is an attractive buy to catch the ne...

$BTI - WATCHLIST -

$BTI is at the right place, at the right date and has a 9.23% dividend.

Wave Y is at $47 too and the price is sitting at $30 right now....this is interesting to see if it can break out of this downward channel where we have called and if it gets its reversal....this may need a catalyst too.

$DOCU

Another chart from last summer (attached) dropped down to the blue line at $39 and bounced as shown and now at $63.

What a ride it has been for $DOCU.

$JETS - AIRLINE ETF - WATCHLIST -

$JETS is our ETF exposure to the airline industry and it has been moving very well since its potential double bottom at the end of October.

Corrective movement so far since the end of December and this is very welcomed.

We can see that the airlines have had a difficult 2 weeks with incidents and poor guidance, so this should continue lower to the Fib levels as shown.

A hold at...

$TOL

Another chart first highlighted in July and is up 30% since then and moving very well through our chart.

So far there has been a clean break above the $99 resistance level and a retest now too, a higher high next and this could continue to our Wave 3 target which is always set at the 1.618 Fib at $137.

$XLV - HEALTHCARE - SAFE HAVEN- WATCHLIST-

I am seeing a lot of bullish activity in the healthcare sector right now and this is chart is another example of this bullish behaviour.

It has been in this very long consolidating channel since October 2021, managing to weather the turbulent market storm for the last 3 years very well and now looks to be in a position to break out.

We are seeing this on the $CURE chart too and $UNH...

$ROP - WATCHLIST -

Another company that has been on our watchlist since July and we can see just how disciplined this chart has been and the price movement.

This is why we added it to our watchlist, charts that move in this controlled manner are very attractive to us.

Trend is clear here and I expect it to continue moving as we called since July to the Wave 3 Target at $660.

$COPX - SAFE HAVEN -

Copper mining ETF had a stutter at the end of October like the market but managed to recapture the ascending triangle again and keep within the structure, as long as it continues in this formation, it can continue drifting higher and possibly breakout next.

Very similar to Gold here but Gold has already broken out of its ascending triangle already.

This is an ETF we should all be wa...

$ROAD

Was a chart of the week back in Sept and just checking in on it now to see how it is doing, no changes here to the chart and it ran right to the Wave 3 level and pulling back for Wave 4 now. A nice 30% gain on that week to the Top of Wave 3.

A pull back here to the 1 Fib at $37.80 and this is in a good position to move higher for Wave 5 to $51

$EVVTY - RC -

There are a lot of positives on this chart for an impulse count.

The pull back in June 2022 held the 0.618/0.65 Fib levels for Wave 2 and the pull back in late 2023 also held the 0.618 Fib and bounced, the price action is working its way through the moving averages now but it looks good to continue its climb over the next few months.

I particularly like how the 1.618 Fib for Wave 3 ...

$PENN - RC -

$PENN did not have a great week, having broken out of its long wedge and above the 200 Day MA, it retested the 200 Day MA from above and could not hold this level, or the 50 Day MA and broke back down into the wedge again.

There are still important Fib levels at $21 that can come to the bulls rescue but like I show on the chart, a break below the blue line and it is into the bear case and...

$ADAUSD

It is difficult to see which direction $ADA will go next.

It had a very strong run last month and we should not be surprised to see a pull back to the 0.618 Fib at $0.39c, in line with a $BTC pull back too....but the price has been holding the 0.38 Fib very well, in between the First and Second Targets and also above the 50 Day MA.....so there is every possibility this can still go higher...

$XRPUSD - RC -

Still an unorthodox chart because of the squeeze in early 2021 and then again in July 2023....which doesn't attract me so much to this crypto, compared to $BTC and $ETH.

That being said, the price is battling to stay above the 200 Day MA and if it can continue to do this, it can make an attempt at the wedge trend line above, a breakout above here at $0.75 and hold, then it can run again u...

$SMCI - RC -

Very strong run leading to the end of 2023 and has held the 0.38 Fib remarkably well and it was tested 5 times (sounds like $NIO at $7) so that is why this has moved higher as the Bulls continued to defend the important level which is also a Wave 4 Fib support level.....as I have discussed in all charts today.

Came very close to making a new high last week and once that is done, it should...

$CVE - RC -

$CVE also looks like the other two charts uploaded this evening, pulling back after running well in Wave 3 and consolidating here in a long tightening wedge...which is typically found in Wave 4 too.

The pull back now is also at the 0.38 Fib and needs to hold here.....any failure to hold now and this is into the Bear Case and working its way down the Fib levels next.

A bounce here an...

$CME - RC -

For all new members, RC means Requested Chart, so its not particularly a company or chart I am researching but it is a chart that Tier 2 members are looking for.

All requests must be of companies above a market cap of $1 Billion and if I do not like the chart or the company, I will make it clear to steer clear of it.

$CME does not fall into that category.

The pull back for Wav...

$ANET - RC -

A few requests to go through today and generally all are quite good and attractive but working their way through the final stages of their Wave count, with some approaching Wave 4 and others in Wave 5, like the market. $ANET is approaching the 1.618 Fib level now, so we expect this to reject around here for Wave 3....notice the distance between the price action and the 50 and 200 Day MA's....th...

$MARA

I am not seeing much concerns here for $MARA apart from how fast it is moving.

That being said, it is moving in a structured count so I can not argue with that.

3 wave pull back so far and the 50 Day MA is right at the 0.618 Fib, can you ask for any more than this to complete Wave C here? before going higher.

Once this level holds, we can count the higher targets next.

$BAC

Like clockwork, we spoke about this during the week, with such a strong run up before a catalyst like an earnings report (or a BITCOIN ETF) there is going to be a buy the rumour, sell the news event.....which is why we watch the movement of bounces to see when a pull back is due.

You can also see how far above the 200 and 50 Day MA the price action has extended to show that a pull back is...

$ETSY

A lot of the Green Fib levels we set in December, where many believed we wouldn't see a pull back are now all being tested, as it has been and always will be.

$ETSY is a perfect example here, finishing the week on the 0.618 Fib which should not be a surprise to anyone.

A failure to hold here and the blue line must hold or there is enormous weakness being shown then.

This chart...