Just at the 1.27 Fib now, I believe this level is important, break above and the the bulls are firmly in control, hard rejection and its 5 waves down. It has been slow moving over the last few weeks. The MACD is showing a slight trend bearish but the RSI is a 50/50 split, bearish from the top and equally bullish from the bottom so this will need more information.
Is it worth ta...
2023-03-06 19:46:43 +0000 UTC View Post
This is what i'm watching now, if it can break above the previous high on Friday, it is possible to run as high as the wedge again at $10.40. My commentary from Friday has not changed, I don't believe the lows are in yet, the pull back will tell us everything we need to know about where this is going next.
2023-03-06 15:49:55 +0000 UTC View Post
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2023-03-06 15:20:39 +0000 UTC View Post
I uploaded $BABA earlier and showed that it has not come down to the 0.618-0.65 Fib yet, whereas JD, which is another Chinese conglomerate , with heavy ties to AI, has reached the 0.65 Fib and has bounced.
This is another stock that got heavily beat up over the last 2 years, pulling back all the way to the 0.88 Fib in October 2022.
But since then, the structure is very disciplined...
Another company I've added a buy zone too. A lot of inside selling over the last year which corresponds to our projection from our original chart uploaded here months ago. So we are watching for Wave C to retrace back to the 0.5 Fib and the 0.65 Fib and this will be a very good addition to our long term strategy.
2023-03-06 12:53:52 +0000 UTC View Post
A very clear bearish pennant here, the preceding trend into the pennant was aggressively down trending, consolidating in the wedge now and the formation illustrates that the likely direction next is down.
I am still in this mindset too, I do not believe the drama is over for crypto. Ultimately, a break above the pennant and the blue line, which was the previous high, the bulls have got ...
Very strong pull back with very little relief bounces, just at the 0.5 Fib at $89.55 now and dipping below in the PM. The 0.618-0.65 Fib is so important here now to watch, it needs to hold here or its coming down to our bear case and possibly our buy zone....I will be delighted with this because 1.) It reinforces our projection that this was a corrective wave since hitting the bottom at $58 and...
2023-03-06 12:23:25 +0000 UTC View Post
Earnings tomorrow morning before the open, this stock was the 2020 darling and people could not get enough of it, eventually revenue and its valuation were miles apart and something had to give and the share price will always lose against weak revenue.
The last three earnings have been positive, after 5 negative earnings. We can see from the chart that it has broken out of its wedge, re...
Broke down below the middle blue line which was a previous support, tried to recapture that line a few times but has rejected each time. Earnings on the 9th of March so may help this improve again, otherwise it will continue to consolidate between the blue lines until earnings improve.
2023-03-06 11:30:30 +0000 UTC View Post
Channel break out and after having a good earnings, this dropped 11% on Friday, disappointing for holders but the drop brought it all the way down to the 0.618 Fib, so I wouldn't be too concerned right now, this could just be completing Wave 2. Needs to hold now and start moving back up, first to hold above the 50 Day MA (in blue) and then above the 200 Day (in yellow) and Wave 3 in green is po...
2023-03-06 11:28:04 +0000 UTC View Post
You've got to admire the Europeans for their strict adherence to EW Theory, since 2003, the DAX has been following the impulse wave beautifully and even with a black swan event in 2020, this perfectly aligned with Wave 4 and held above Wave 2 to make the count invalid.
I believe the DAX and FTSE are on course for a major correction, both are showing approaching all time highs and their e...
Similar count to what Tommy uploaded in the Telegram group to review, just a slight difference to the green impulse wave once it touches the blue line in April.
What I like here is the consolidation period between May 2022 to present day, made higher lows too, so we can see that for all of 2022, earnings were negative and in March 2023, earnings were green and positive, this is what you ...
Very strong pull back, just about held on to its validity, Wave 1 of A can start as a Leading Diagonal, meaning that Waves can overlap each other, this can also happen for Wave 5's and they are called ending diagonals.
So in this can, Wave 1, 2, 3 and 4 are overlapping lapping on each other, but the main point to take is that it needs to hold above the low. RSI and MACD and still trendi...
I spoke a lot about $PLTR during the week, we were watching for the gap fill and a bounce and it got both and finished the week above the 200 Day Ma, a retest again and holding above the previous high and this is looking strong for the bull case.
MACD is showing that $PLTR is not out of the murky waters yet after a very strong pull back from its high, so it will need to start showing str...
Very similar to the $SPY set up, held the 200 Day MA and bouncing and where we have been expecting, looking for the bounce to complete at the 0.65 Fib and not going above the previous high....naturally if it does go above the previous high, the bulls have taken over.
No changes to the RSI or MACD, both are still trending bearish, Mid March for the CPI results is looking like the bi...
2023-03-05 11:44:20 +0000 UTC View Post
I have set Wave B completing slightly below the 0.236 Fib due to the 200 Day coming up from below and I believe this will coincide with Wave B completing. Otherwise everything is the same. RSI still in the same trend and MACD in bearish territory but it looks like the bleeding is starting to slow down.
I think in terms of a short term play, when Wave B is complete, it would be a good ent...
Very little changes here, sitting on the 200 Day MA for the last 2 weeks as support and below the blue line resistance level....it appears that the Semi industry is awaiting their direction too, $NVDA is the same.
RSI is holding the the trend line and MACD is showing that the trend may be losing support, both of these indications are great when combined together, sometimes one can be sli...
Holding the wedge again, we know how slow this is to change direction, everything remains as before, if we take the the largest width of the wedge and put it at the likely spot for this to break down out of the wedge, we can see that this comes down exactly to our blue line support at $6.50. So if the wedge loses support and flips, this comes down substantially.
2023-03-05 11:26:35 +0000 UTC View Post
Very similar to $COST, broke down from an important support level and following our count down. Big test at $264.
RSI held at 30 but well below the trend and MACD still bearish.
No changes here, I am not bullish here and see no indications to be bullish yet either, it is in a difficult industry at the moment.
Excuse me as I appreciate my chart skills here, this pull back has come down exactly to the bear case line for the right shoulder, exact price at the exact date, so I do enjoy when this happens.
I obviously want to see this break down lower and go into the bear case because of their Moat and dividend and solid slow growth but the chart is in control, not my wants. We will continue to mon...
Following our Wave 3 very well here, broke down from the wedge on a mixed earnings, where EPS improved but revenue declined and guidance was uncertain. $COST will need to consider raising the membership fee and this will probably be a good move and the brand loyalty $COST has will probably absorb any increases...assuming the increases wont be too high.
$450 is still the price we are wat...
Strong finish to the week, we were waiting for a bounce and it happened right on the 200 Day MA, it finished back in the wedge and what we want to see is a ABC move for Wave 2 and with no surprise, this would have Wave 2 finish at the 0.65 Fib EXACTLY at the Blue line at 409.70, this blue line has not flipped since Feb 2022, all other attempts have been fake outs and have not held.
RSI i...
Nice pop on the support line and we were waiting for it, the 0.65 Fib goes up to $27.44 for Wave 4. The 50 Day MA should come down to meet and offer a confluence level.
RSI has shown a bounce exactly at the 30 RSI and MACD is a little behind but starting to shown signs of reversing, I still expect this to dip into our buy zone but I will be watching for the retest and if it holds above ...
It has been interesting to watch today at how all the Mega Cap stocks have pulled back and each of them have all held at different Fib level, $TSLA at the 0.236. Fib, $AAPL at 0.382 Fib, $MSFT at the 0.5 Fib, $GOOG at the 0.78 Fib and $AMZN just recapturing the 0.65 Fib on Friday.
So what we can take from this is that each stock is completely independent of each other and together they m...
Another slow moving stock, no changes to this chart and I left the head and shoulders pattern as is, I can see 5 waves down for this potential Wave 1 so it is possible that we could be looking at the start of the Right Shoulder, one or two more sessions will provide more information. Just held at the 50 Day MA on Friday and the 200 Day MA is still far above.
$AAPL and $MSFT look a lot st...
Similar to the $AAPL chart I just uploaded, however, this pullback has come down to the 0.5 Fib and held, which was at the 50 Day MA too, on Friday the price just finished above the 200 Day MA too. It is in a very delicate situation right now, just at the red trend line and below a historical support and resistance blue line, a flip here and this is bullish, a rejection and Wave 3 in red could ...
2023-03-04 11:17:41 +0000 UTC View Post
What I like about $AAPL is that it is slow and structured, the market cap is so large that you will not get wild swings here. We can see that it has pulled back to the 0.38 Fib and held and finished Friday above the 200 Day, a shallow Wave 2 if Wave 2 is now complete so it is unlikely that Wave 2 is in now. Ultimately, a break above the wedge and the previous high into the Bull case is very pos...
2023-03-04 11:02:52 +0000 UTC View Post
Very little extra to report here, it is holding very well above the 0.236 Fib and as we have spoke about before, this is a pull back level we would expect for Wave B. A break above the previous high and this can go up to finish Wave C and hit the red trend line....and then the fun begins!
If $TSLA does break below the 0.236 Fib and flips this support to resistance, we expect to see this ...
For the last 3 weeks, we waited for earnings to come in and waited for the ballon after the earnings to come down and gap fill and hold at the 0.65 Fib, it has done all of that now.
I think in terms of a long term hold, this is a very good company to consider, their Moat is very strong, if they continue to produce good earnings, this should have no issues returning to previous highs.......
Ok a few mins to go but it looks like $NIO will finish just at $9.50 or slightly above.
$9.50 is important before it was a support line before this came down to make a new low. We spoke last night about the red channel, it did break out of that today and really rallied at the opening.
I drew Fib lines to see where would be a potential resistance line (as with impulse waves, we use...