The Long Investor

TWEET - THOUGHTS

My personal thought is that it will likely take until the next earnings season before we see any potential impact on Capex spending towards $NVDA 

We know how crucial $NVDA is to the bull market,...

$JASMY

I know the majority of you will know that this chart does not need an update but it is an Alt Coin a lot of us have bought so it is worth reminding and grounding ourselves to the facts.

This week has been volatile for crypto but the structure here has not changed, only that the 200 Day MA has not held and the price needed to test the 0.618 Fib (the standard retest level for an ABC pull ba...

$CL - SAFE HAVEN - WATCHLIST -

Just simply textbook from $CL, one of the strictest moving charts we have and has never let us down, since we started charting this in October 2023.

Price has pulled back to in between the 0.5 Fib and 0.618 Fib to the blue line at $86 and held support sublimey, price has already bounced on this level and did it's job as a safe haven yesterday (Up +3.5%)
Th 50 Day MA is the next test at...

$COIN

$COIN has pulled back so far to its 0.618 Fib at $267 yesterday and already recovered now to $279 in the PM, we will watch to see if this level holds now and if it does, then $COIN has its higher low, which would be subwave 2 of this Wave 5.

I have not changed my view on $COIN, I believe this Cup and Handle formation completes at the very least at $369.

$KO - TOP 10 - SAFE HAVEN -

This legacy safe haven, a Buffett favourite and one of our Top 10 companies for 2025 is living up to our expectations for this year.

A very clear bounce on the 200 WMA now, on the red support line and in between the 0.5 Fib and 0.618 Fib range, AND out of the Buy Zone.

Price is already testing the 50 WMA now too, so if you feel like you have missed this, either wait for a higher low...

$ABNB TOP 20 - WATCHLIST -

$ABNB is becoming too irresistible to ignore right now as it flirts with testing the the 0.618 Fib level at $125 and the bottom line of the channel, a hold here and some exposure makes sense
$ABNB is also a company I would have no issue DCA'ing into if the 0.618 Fib is not held and a retest of the bottom red line at $110 happens next.

$ABNB and $NKE are in the same category for me, bo...

$HIMS

$HIMS really showed its teeth yesterday and even pushed higher throughout the day until a slight fade in the afternoon.

The 50 Day MA has not been retested either and we only have a retest of the 0.38 Fib so far

For me there is a clear route to $35, Paul is a popular EW Theorist on X and he has $HIMS in Wave 2 now and moving into Wave C, which would bring this down to the 200 Day MA...

$SPY TOP 20

After all of the drama yesterday, there is not a single change to the $SPY chart from the one I uploaded on Sunday, nor is there a change to my commentary either, it moved as expected

The 50 Day MA got tested and the price action is just above this level now, I think there could still be some more volatility in this pull back because we expect to see 3 waves in every pull back, so a relie...

$OSCR TOP 10

$OSCR has erased all losses so far from yesterday in the PM now and moving very well in this Impulse Wave

200 Day MA has been a resistance level so far on the first test from below but we are still above the 50 Day MA and the 0.38 Fib, so holding above this level for a higher low and I believe our Wave 3 target is next at $18.20

Our portfolio was largest unaffected by yesterday's mo...

$NVDA

Yesterday was an historical and record breaking day, $NVDA lost $600 Billion in Market Cap in one violent swoop down.

Our plan (which we kept to) was to add on the 200 Day MA at $121 but we can see that the price flushed down further to $116.45 which was exactly at the 50 Week MA.

However the price has already recovered to $123 in the PM now, so I am happy we kept to our strategy an...

NESN - TOP 10 -

Strong response from this Safe Haven as the market suffers in the US.

Price is retesting the 0.5 Fib at 76 for support.

Flipping this level to support and consolidating and/or moving in an impulse wave and Wave C could be complete and we have a move back up to the 200 WMA next at 105.

+4% Dividend payment here too, looking very attractive above 76.

$LVMHF - TOP 10 -

Wave 3 target has now hit at the 1.618 fib at $786 and it has been done very quickly.

It has run from $635 to $786 in less than a month, so I would like to see a pull back now shortly as shown to the 0.38 Fib next at $725 to maintain the standard structure and allow members to add to their positions again before the move up for Wave 5.

Leading the Top 10 performances this year so fa...

$BIDU

Slowly redeeming itself since finding support on the $80 level, the 50 Day MA is now cleared but the next big test will be the 200 Day MA at $92 next and ultimately testing the channel breakout level at $100 afterwards.

I think we are still very early here to accumulate but holding above the 200 Day MA would encourage me to add again.

$BIDU is one of the leaders of Ai from China, so...

$AMD TOP 20

A chart can not lie, it is factual.

We can see a very clear test of the 200 WMA here at the opening at $115 and now at $117, this was also a test of the 0.65 Fib too.

$AMD bulls have stepped in and as the dust starts to settle a bit, the support needs to continue to hold, the worst case scenario is a drop down to the 0.78 Fib at $91, which is a very clear buy for me if this happens....

$XLV - HEALTHCARE SECTOR ETF - WATCHLIST -

I really like this set up here.

Price has pulled back since the end of the August and we can see it's just been a simple retest of the blue support lines and the 200 Day MA.

Even with a weak PM today in the market, the price is back up above the blue support line at $144.

Just the 50 Day MA to convert to support next at $147 and the bullish trend is clear.

Next test shou...

$OKLO

Pulled back to the Second Target support level now in the PM at $35, failure to hold on this level and the price is down to the breakout level and the First Target between $28-$30.

A hold here and this would be a great entry to catch another move higher.

Right now it is not a buy until support is found.

Any market uncertainty will damage unprofitable companies as people take r...

$VIX - IMPORTANT NOTE -

$VIX is up +42% now after this small black swan event coupled with one of the most important days of the quarter coming up on Weds, so people are somewhat concerned now and reacting accordingly.....something market makers love to see and something I spoke about a lot before the PM opened.

Price is at $21 now which has happened a coupled of times since August but not seeing any massively c...

$BTI - WATCHLIST +7.7% DIVIDEND -

$BTI was short-listed for our Top 10 list for 2025 and now we can clearly see why, it is the ultimate safe haven and has a dividend of +7.7%....and up +3.5% now while the market is hurting this morning.

Price action is on the cusp of making a higher high too at $40, once the price goes above this level then the trend is confirmed again and I expect this to continue to move higher to the t...

$TEM

Don't forget about $TEM this week folks....pulling back now and the 0.5 Fib is aligning perfectly with the blue support line at $44, a hold here for me seems like the likely test next, so a 3 wave pull back to this level and a higher low could be in and you have a very clear buy signal before moving higher....$44 needs to hold or $41 is next which is also no issue once there is a hold.

$SOFI - EARNINGS JUST OUT -

Tough day to be reporting before the market opens.

SOFI double beat: EPS .05 vs .04 expected and Rev beats $739.1M vs 682.2M

And the price is down -10% now in the PM but there are no changes to the chart I uploaded last week, Wave 4 is the likely dominant scenario now so a pull back to the 0.38 Fib as standard at $13 should be expected before going higher to complete Wave 5.

$TLT

$TLT is performing well this morning as the market is looking back to this traditional safe haven

Price had already broken above the 0.78 Fib at $86, retested the level then and has now bounced and moving back up to the 0.618 Fib at $89, where the 50 Day MA is also waiting.

This is good movement for $TLT and recapturing the blue line at $91 will be a significant trend change and sig...

$ASML TOP 10

This potential black swan event from DeepSeek is affecting the Semi suppliers in the PM now and $ASML has actually dropped below its 200 WMA because of this, so we should be looking at a retest of the 0.618 Fib at $654 next.

Something I am very excited about because I felt as though we may have missed some strong value on the 1st of Jan....but as always, we are given a second chance by th...

$PLTR TOP 20

Has DeepSeek shown that Ai can be used a lot more efficiently and with less energy?....it has been incredibly impressive looking at what they have achieved with such a small budget and team and compete now against the largest Ai companies around the world.

This to me is showing limitations on $PLTRs moat.

Price is down to the 0.5 Fib here but there is no break down of structure yet ...

$HIMS

Ok pull back time for our favourite position.

I have added in the smaller fib levels for this subwave 2 of Wave 3 pull back.

We can see that the 50 Day MA is aligned with the 0.5 Fib at $28.06, so this is the level of interest and we want a 3 wave pull back and completing here for a higher low.

Holding above this level is extremely bullish to me and will provide another buy en...

$ETH

The markets are shook this morning and crypto is so heavily in sync with the securities market (this much is very clear now) that it is pulling back almost in perfect step.

We can see here that a retest of the 200 Day MA is likely next at $3000, holding here and we have a higher low, so I will be happy to see this.

Losing this level and the larger 0.618 Fib at $2870 is next.

R...

$NVDA

$NVDA is taking the biggest hit in the PM because of DeepSeeks capability

The streamlined explanation is that DeepSeek does not need the excessive amount of GPU's that ChatGpt needs to power its AI function, so there is a concern that Capex spending will reduce if software like DeepSeek can carry out the same functions as Chatgpt but can do it a lot cheaper and without the need of expensi...

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TOP 20 LIST

$SPY TOP 20

As I have just explained on the $QQQ chart, there has been a very strong bullish bounce this month, brought on by Trumps return to office and the bullish Capex spending announced towards Ai infrastructure, there has also been a new ATH made this week too....which further confirms the bullish trend and the Melt Up scenario.

Big week this week, Mega Caps report earnings and the FED announce...

$QQQ TOP 20

The Mega Caps are reporting this week which means market makers will likely take advantage of this situation after a very bullish week this week....meaning expect some volatility leading up to Weds and Thursday, they will try to shake out weak hands who are not comfortable holding throughout earnings reports.

I want to be very clear here, a pull back to the smaller green fibs is healthy, ...