Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 25NOV23 20:00 PST - Quick Update

Reminder: six SITREPs a week (Thanksgiving holiday aside). So, today was a sort of day off.

There is little to report. The number of combat clashes declined as we expected due to the weather, with the heaviest fighting happening in Avdiivka. The 47th Mechanized Infantry Brigade released videos from a couple of days ago showing Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFV) firing from the very northeastern tip of the Avdiivka Coke Plant compound, south of Stepove, and 370 meters from the railroad tracks. The videos indicated a few things:

• They confirm that Russian troops have not reached the Coke Plant and have been pushed back from the berm just east of the fence.
• They also confirm that Russian troops remain at or near the train tracks both near the plant at at Stepove, which indicates that the situation has somewhat improved from a week ago.
• With a Bradley IFV operating within 370 meters of Russian troops and only taking small arms fire, it hints that Russian forces are facing a renewed deficit of ATGMs.
• Russian troops were returning fire, and well-equipped dismounts were behind a fence near the IFV. Overall, they appeared relaxed given the conditions. 

The only area where Russia made marginal advances was in the industrial district in southeast Avdiivka. This remains the hardest area. Ukrainian forces are really struggling to hold what's left of their defensive positions.

The other region with heavy fighting was Marinka, where Ukrainian forces continued to defy logic and the tactical situation, clinging to the western and northwestern parts of the settlement.

Ukraine hit the energy infrastructure in occupied Donetsk hard, with half the region in the dark. The city of the same name is experiencing isolated outages, and some of that may be weather related.

The Ukrainian Air Forces updated its information from yesterday, reporting that 74 of 75 drones were shot down. It's worth noting that among the three additional shoot-downs, one collided with power lines, so technically, at least one unintentionally collided with an object at low altitude.

There was another air raid with Shahed-136 drones ongoing at the time of publication, with Kyiv and western Ukraine targeted despite the rapidly declining weather conditions. It does not appear to be as large as yesterday's attack.

The weather models for November 26 and 27 are really impressive. A very strong storm will pass almost directly over Odesa and move into the northern Black Sea before curving northward across southern Ukraine, where it will slightly weaken.

Odesa and areas north and east, as well as occupied Crimea, particularly the western coast, are going to get absolutely hammered. I know, not very military speak. I expect coastal areas in Crimea will experience significant flooding, and defense structures near the intertidal zone will suffer additional damage. In the areas where it will rain, like Avdiivka, it will be followed by below-freezing temperatures and winds around 40 kph with gusts to 60 kph. No part of Ukraine will be spared, and temperatures will remain below or near freezing through November 29, when another round of wind, rain, and snow arrives.

There were no map updates today, and we expect the next 48 hours to be somewhat quiet due to the looming weather system.