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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 24 JAN 2024 23:59* PST - Russia's Impossible Il-76 Shoot Down Timeline

Added 2024-01-25 08:48:39 +0000 UTC

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SITREP 588 is 65 pages and a full report.

What's Happening

What's the big story? We provide an in-depth timeline and analysis of the events leading up to the shoot down of the Russian Il-76 military transport near Belgorod.

What's the second story? It really looks like this is the end of the line of military aid for Ukraine from the United States.

Summary

There are assessment updates
There are rumor updates
Fighting continued in the Kupyansk AO
Yesterday’s missile attacks on Kharkiv killed ten
Fighting continued in the Kreminna AO
Fighting was reported in the Siversk AO
Fighting was reported in the Soledar AO
Fighting continued in the Bakhmut AO
Fighting continued on the Klishchiivka AO
Fighting was reported in the Toretsk-Niu York AO
Fighting continued in the Avdiivka AO
Fighting continued in the Marinka AO
Fighting continued in the Vuhledar AO
Fighting continued in the Staromlynivka AO
Light fighting continued in the Orikhiv AO
Russian sources reported that occupied Melitopol was attacked three times
Fighting continued in the Kherson AO
GSAFU warned that Russia was preparing to use chemical weapons in Kyrnky in an attempt to break Ukraine’s bridgehead
Ten ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet are on patrol
A Project-775 large landing ship arrived in occupied Sevastopol with a dazzle paint scheme
Russia rebuilt harbor defenses in Sevastopol
Odesa was attacked by 14 Shahed-136 drones, with three hits and two people wounded
Two Kh-59 guided missiles were shot down over Dnipro
We have established a detailed timeline of the events leading up to and after the Russian Il-76 was shot down
A Ukrainian drone attack heavily damaged the Rosneft Oil Refinery in Tuapse, Krasnodar Krai, Russia
There were only 50 combat clashes in Ukraine
We provide an extensive update on Russian claims that the Il-76 airplane was transporting Ukrainian POWs to Belgorod
Russia did not arrive at the border checkpoint for today’s scheduled exchange
At the time of publication, the list released by Russian state media alleging to contain the names of 65 POWs killed only contained 13 verifiable prisoners
The International Committee of the Red Cross said it does not take part in POW exchanges
President Zelenskyy called for an international investigation
State Duma Deputy Andrey Kartapolov accused Ukraine of shooting down the Il-76 on purpose as a provocation and said Russia was suspending future POW exchanges
The White House said it was working to get more data
We are working on further authentication that the airplane was carrying members of the IRGC
Ukraine is building 1,000 kilometers of echelon defenses
Viktor Orban announced he supported Sweden’s accession to NATO and would put the measure forward in Parliament
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba said North Korea was a better partner to Russia than some Western nations supporting Ukraine
German Chancellor Scholz said that he was lobbying other European leaders to increase military aid
Scholz also said that Berlin and Kyiv were close to reaching a security guarantee agreement
Slovakia agreed to support Ukraine’s integration into Europe, continue to sell military equipment and munitions, and would not block 50 billion euros of financial aid
Slovakia, Poland, and Denmark announced new aid packages or arms sales to Ukraine
The U.K. is reportedly working with Germany to do a circular transfer of Taurus cruise missiles so Ukraine can get more Storm Shadow missiles
The U.S. Department of Defense warned that without additional funding, Ukraine won’t have parts or munitions to support military equipment already in the field
There are reports that a military aid package to Ukraine is all but dead in the U.S. Senate
Russian State Duma Senator Dmitry Rogozin warned that Ukraine is far more powerful than Russian propagandists say
Three members of the Il-76 flight crew have been identified
In occupied Donetsk, Russian contract soldiers from Malaysia are being trained
Russia attacked a Kherson hospital with cluster munitions, wounding three
The Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine reported one in seven schools have been damaged or destroyed since February 24, 2022
Political prisoners in occupied Crimea reported drunken guards were torturing them
Russia has ended border cooperation with Finland
Cryptocurrency exchange Binance is stopping all transactions involving roubles on January 31

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