Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 30DEC23 17:15 PST - Battle Damage Assessment Suggests Russia Fired on Belgorod

I know - day off - it isn't World War III, but this is a big story.

On the morning of December 30, Belgorod time, the city was rocked by a series of explosions. At first, it appeared to be from a drone attack. As videos became available, it was clearly a rocket attack. What wasn't clear was if the explosions were from air defense missile debris and intercepted missile debris or an unanswered strike. The damage was more consistent with smaller unitary warheads. Antiaircraft missiles use a fragmentation warhead and leave distinct damage patterns.

We've analyzed two videos, and serious questions have emerged on the point of origin of the rockets.

The attached video is filmed in Belgorod at the Univermag Belgorod Shopping Mall, 50.600833, 36.589903. The point of view car is traveling south on Ulitsa Popova Street.

At 00:04, a rocket strikes Ulitsa Popova Street in front of the Belgorod Branch of Synergy University. Russian reports of damage at the college further confirm our geolocation.

Immediately after the impact, if you go frame by frame, you can see the debris from the rocket skidding across the street from east to west. You can also see the explosion expand from east to west. The rocket that landed here was not only traveling east to west, but the street grid from the map of Belgorod indicates it was traveling almost perfectly from 90 degrees to 270 degrees, with an accuracy of +/- 10 degrees.

An accurate determination would require an in-person splash pattern, battle damage assessment, and an inspection of the debris to determine the weapon used.

There is a significant problem with the rocket traveling from east to west. It's impossible for it to have been launched by Ukraine.

Was it an air defense missile? The odds are never zero, but the size of the explosion is inconsistent with an S-300 or S-400 antiaircraft rocket. 

Was it a drone strike? The odds are never zero, but in the frame-by-frame we never could identify an object flying in. Even an artillery shell has a probability of appearing in at least one frame. This object was moving well above the speed capable of a drone.

Was it a warhead or fragments of an intercepted missile or rocket? That remains a possibility. If a rocket or missile fails in flight or is intercepted and breaks apart, the direction of travel can be changed, and splash pattern analysis (which we can't do in this case) isn't a firm indicator of the original path of travel. However, if any part of the rocket included the engine assembly with fuel, the explosion was far too small.

Russian officials flailed throughout the day, altering their story. Initial reports were a drone attack; all drones were intercepted, and the only damage was from falling debris.

Then Russia accused Ukraine of using Grad rockets fired by multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS). That's impossible. A Grad rocket has a maximum range of 17 kilometers. If Ukraine brought a BM-21 MLRS right to the Russian border, the point of impact is 32 kilometers away - and that requires the Grad rocket to travel from south to north. If the rocket traveled west to east, and we have our orientation wrong, the distance is 82 kilometers.

Russian then said that a Czech Republic RM-70 Vampire MLRS system was used. The RM-70 is a modified Grad rocket system with a maximum range of 20 kilometers. It still doesn't add up.

What about M31A rockets fired by HIMARS? This is well within the maximum distance from south to north, but none of the impacts are consistent with an M31A. Further, Russia is accusing Ukraine of using cluster munitions. The M31A is a unitary HE warhead. Additionally, if the rocket traveled west to east, at 82 kilometers, it would require bringing a launcher right to the Russian border.

What about the M30A1 rocket? The M30A1 uses 182,000 tungsten BBs and not cluster munitions. The damage in the numerous pictures and videos is also inconsistent, and there is the issue of range.

What about the M26 rocket for HIMARS? It has not been publicly acknowledged that Ukraine has received M26 rockets with submunitions. The bomblets are distinctive and have a relatively high failure rate. Since Ukraine got DPICM artillery shells, they have been used following the established rules of engagement.

What about a Smerch rocket? The 9M55 and 9M55K have a maximum range of 70 kilometers, so traveling west to east, it can't reach Belogord. Additionally, when it releases its submunitions, the carrier is ejected and is typically recovered intact. At the time of publication, no pictures have emerged of Smerch carriages.

What about Tochka-U SRBM? Ukraine hasn't used any in months, with the supply likely exhausted. The size of the explosion is inconsistent for a Tochka-U, and it ejects its submunition carrier in flight. 

What about a modified S-200 used for a ground attack? The explosion is far too small for a converted S-200 air defense missile. 

What about an air-to-surface missile or other weapon? The Kremlin claimed that three AGM-88 HARM missiles were intercepted, but the antiradiation missiles use a fragmentation warhead, not submunition bomblets. Further, there is no evidence that Ukraine has used AGM-88 HARM for anything other than SEAD/DEAD missions. We also have to ignore the fact that one of the claims Russia made yesterday was Ukraine's F-16 fleet was already destroyed, and to date, Russia also claims to have shot down 300% of the Ukrainian Air Force.

What about a weapon we haven't seen yet? Applying Occam's Razor, this is the best possibility if Ukraine is responsible for the attack.

But there's another problem. In 22 months of warfare, Ukraine has never intentionally targeted Russian civilians as scale. On the other hand, we know from 26 years of history that Russian President Vladimir Putin has almost certainly targeted hundreds of Russian civilians to bolster his political standing.

The Russian Ministry of Defense is claiming 20 people were killed and 108 wounded across Belogord and that Ukraine used NATO or NATO-aligned cluster munitions. An emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council is currently being held. 

Why would Russia attack its own city at this scale?

• Russia has launched attacks on occupied Donetsk, which we and other analysts and human rights organizations have previously documented. There is an established precedent.
• Russia struggled to complete its fall conscription, taking 3 months to process 130,000 new conscripts. In the central and eastern districts, as well as in the penal units, Russia is running out of human capital. An attack on Russian soil will bolster nationalism and distract the public from raging about egg prices.
• Commodity inflation is becoming a real problem for the Kremlin. While the average Russian who doesn't live in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and a handful of other large cities has never gone to McDonalds or Starbucks and doesn't care they've left Russia, the spiraling cost of eggs impacts everyone. Along with the spiraling costs for meat, fruits, and vegetables, and despite stealing millions of tons of grain, even flour prices are spiking.
• Support for the so-called "special military operation" is dwindling within Russia. This was observable during the December 14 President Putin call-in. One out of five questions submitted was some variation of when the special military operation would end. Not only can a burst of nationalism improve recruitment, but it also fuels anti-Ukrainian sentiment among the electorate. 
• President Putin has used fake attacks to bolster his political standing during election years. The most heinous attack was used to start the second Russia-Chechen War. While he has a 100% chance of winning the upcoming elections in March, he wants to be 150% sure he'll win.
• Russia wants to make sure that the United States and European Union end military support for Ukraine. A subset of political leaders across the West will latch on to these claims as a casus belli to end sending additional support.

However, Russia has another problem. Moscow has repeatedly stated that if any NATO weapon is used on Russian soil, the Kremlin will view that as an act of war by the nation. Whether the claims are false or true, Russia is accusing Ukraine's allies of crossing a red line. If you've followed Russia for the last 22 months, you know, and I know, and Russia knows, they aren't going to do anything. However, for more doveish advisors and political leaders, the threat of crossing that red line, don't make Putin angry, he might nuke us, is seen as a real threat.

Based on the available evidence and the analysis of two videos, one of which we deep-dived in this flash report, there is a significant possibility that Russia fired on its own people in Belogord. There remains the possibility that some or all of the impacts were Russian air defense debris, and this is an attempt to cover up incompetence. There is also still the possibility that Ukraine used a weapon the world has not previously seen, but that would represent a dangerous escalation and does not fit with Kyiv's rules of engagement.