TheMalcontent

Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 15 DEC 2023 23:59* PST - The Mother of All SITREPS

Added 2023-12-16 13:17:32 +0000 UTC

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SITREP 560 is a record-breaking 82 👀 pages, 10,186 words, and a full report. It has been an intense news cycle this week.

Editor’s Note: Today’s SITREP discusses suicide and contains detailed information about sexual violence. If you find these topics distressing, we recommend skipping the Western and Central Ukraine and War Crimes and Human Rights section.

What's Happening

What's the big story? Ukraine continues to hold existing defense lines and is likely getting an assist from General Winter.

What's the second story? The sleeping European giant is starting to wake up, and the ammunition shortage may be easier to fix than original realized, but if Europe doesn't prepare, the Russian bear may come.

Summary

Severe weather and the Kyivstar cyberattack earlier in the week are limiting the number of videos, pictures, and reports from the LOC
There are map updates
There are minor assessment updates
There are rumor updates
Russian forces suffered catastrophic losses for the second day in a row north of Synkivka
Fighting continued in the Kreminna AO
Russian forces were unable to advance on Bohdanivka
Fighting continued in the dachas and community gardens in the southwestern tip of Bakhmut
Fighting continued in the Klishchiivka AO
Russian forces continued their attempts to advance from the Krasnohorivka Plateau on the north flank of the Aviidvka AO
Russian forces continue to suffer catastrophic losses east of Stepove
Russian forces have reached the railroad siding north of the Avdiivka Coke Plant but can’t maintain their positions
Russian forces pushed through the industrial zone in southeastern Avdiivka, but it is unclear if they were able to establish new positions
Subordinate attacks continued on the south flank of Avdiivka
Ukrainian forces suffered significant losses while making marginal gains in northwest Marinka
Fighting continued south and east of Novomykhailivka
Russian forces attempted to advance on Staromaiorske
Ukrainian forces attacked a fuel depot in occupied Donetsk
Occupied Donetsk has suffered catastrophic damage to its electrical grid after five days of ice storms
Russian state media provided an OPSEC violating BDA of the Ukrainian missile attack on Mariupol
Fighting continued on the Orikhiv AO
Insurgents in occupied Melitopol sabotaged a fuel and ammunition train
The IAEA provided an update on the status of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
Russian forces continue to suffer heavy losses at Krynky on the left bank of the Konka River
A Russian soldier made a big mistake with an antitank weapon, and Robert Magyar Brovdi recorded it
The Chongar checkpoint was closed after a drone attack on occupied Kherson and Crimea
Russia claims air defenses shot down 32 Ukrainian drones over occupied Crimea
The United States Congress passed the Black Sea Security Act
Bulgaria accused Russia of having “imperial ambitions”
A Russian Kh-59 guided missile was shot down over the Kirovohrad oblast
A deputy of the Keretsky Village Council threw three grenades into the meeting chamber, wounding 26 and himself
Kyiv was attacked for the sixth time since December 1
A security guard in Kyiv is facing up to 2 years in prison for blocking two children from entering a bomb shelter because they had a dog
Russia claims they shot down four drones over Kursk, Russia
The Freedom of Russia Legion took responsibility for the refinery sabotage in Voronezh, Russia
Moscow is experiencing the snowiest start to December in almost 150 years
Central Russia is being buried by the heaviest snowfall ever recorded while experiencing near-record-cold
Kyivstar reported its cellular and Internet network has been mostly restored
Ukrhydroenergo reported that within six months, they will add another 1,000 megawatts of capacity online
The GUR estimates there are 473,000 Russian troops in Ukraine
Moscow reveals that Russia and the U.S. are using the deconfliction line again
U.S. Ambassador to China says that China is not providing military aid to Russia but is not a neutral party
Military analyst Mike Kofman reported that over the summer, Ukraine held a 2:1 artillery advantage
SPECIAL ASSESSMENT: Why that’s potentially good news, and why Europe and its allies need to prepare for a continental war against Russia that could happen
Poland protesters backed by the pro-Russian Confederate Party used a loophole in the law to blockade the Ukraine border
Slovakia ended the blockade on the Ukraine border
The U.S. 2024 NDAA did not extend the Lend-Lease Act of 2023
The World Bank authorized the release of $1.34 billion in economic support to support Ukraine
The E.U. authorized 1.5 billion euros in economic aid to Ukraine
Lithuania announces a new military aid package for Ukraine
South Korea is providing Ukraine with ten uncrewed demining machines
Germany sent a 6.1 million euro tranche of humanitarian aid
The European Union believes it has a workaround to release 50 billion in aid to Ukraine that Hungary can’t veto
The first Leopard 2 tanks repaired by Lithuania are ready to be returned to Ukraine
Investigative journalists have identified almost 40,000 Russian soldiers who have died since February 24, 2022, using OSINT
President Putin held a tightly controlled and orchestrated question-and-answer session on state media
Family members of mobiks criticized Putin for not answering questions about troop rotation
Two recently naturalized citizens of Russia had their citizenship stripped after evading military duty
Russia almost shot down its own Su-25 with a Grad rocket
In Omsk, Russia, a school director refused to put up a memorial plaque for a fallen soldier
Russia’s demographic crisis is expected to get worse in the next 25 years – much worse
Political prisoner and Putin-lite Alexey Navalny is officially missing
Scientist Vladislav Galkin was arrested for treason
Nine people were convicted in Moscow for stealing Mig-29 parts
Human rights activist Nadezhda Nizovkina is facing charges for participation in the activities an undesirable organization
In a closed-court hearing, Igor ‘Girkin’ Strelkov pled not guilty to the charge of extremism
ASSESSMENT: Streklov belongs in a prison cell for the rest of his life, but the Kremlin has a second agenda
Oleg Orlov had his case for repeatedly discrediting the Russian Federation Armed Forces returned to the prosecutor for a stiffer sentence
A rape committed by a Kadyrovite in occupied Mariupol was recorded by the neighbor of the victim
A civilian was extrajudicially executed in occupied Oleshky
A Russian APC intentionally ran over a car in occupied Donetsk
The co-founder of the Rusich Group admitted his direct involvement in the anti-Maidan
The other co-founder of the Rusich Group, Jan Petrovsky, isn’t leaving Finland in the near future as a war crime investigation is opened
Five more Ukrainian children are repatriated
Finland closed two border crossings with Russia less than 48 hours after they opened them due to the influx of undocumented migrants
U.S. Congress approved a law that prevents the President from unilaterally withdrawing from the NATO Alliance
Russia raised its prime lending rate to 16%
Russia reported inflation was at 7.5%, but other signals from the Kremlin suggest it's much higher
Ukraine cut its prime lending rate to 15%

Where's the damn podcast?

That is 100% on me. I am steadfast in no more work after 01:00 hours local time (here it is 03:45 hours), and yesterday's SITREP wasn't complete until after 03:30 hours. That means no one to sign off on the script. Working on a solution. The challenge is as more and more OSINT accounts give up, get deleted by social media, or are canceled for the right or wrong reasons, the intelligence gathering for us keeps getting longer and longer.

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