TheMalcontent

Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 13 DEC 2023 23:59* PST - Putin Understands Weakness

Added 2023-12-14 11:16:31 +0000 UTC

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SITREP 558 is 63 pages and a full report.

What's Happening

Editor's Note: It's worth repeating. When we say, "as long as it takes," we mean it. As you process the major setback from yesterday, remember that Ukraine beat back the Russian A team from Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Sumy without broad support from the West. Realistically, there are going to be setbacks in the weeks and months ahead. We're already seeing this on the battlefield. But this is not the beginning of the end. It is the end of one chapter and the beginning of a new one. The Ukrainian military of December 2023 is much stronger than the military of December 2021. Yes, Russia is also stronger, but in different ways. So breathe. If you're all in like us, stick around because surprises can happen.

Now I'm going to bed.

Content Warning: Today's SITREP contains a detailed account and video of a grave breach of the Geneva Conventions by Russian troops. If you find this content upsetting, we recommend you skip the War Crimes and Human Rights section.

What's the big story? A day after the United States deadlocked on aid for Ukraine, Russia launched the largest drone strike on Odesa since September 2022, including the Danube River Ports. No, we don't think it's a coincidence because Putin understands weakness.

What's the second story? Russian forces continue to suffer catastrophic losses in the Avdiivka AO.

Summary

There are errors and omissions in the Theaterwide section
There are map updates
There are assessment updates
Ice storms in eastern Ukraine are causing significant problems in the occupied territories
Fighting continues in the Kupyansk AO
RMOD reported that Ukrainian forces attacked Yahidne
Fighting continued in the Kreminna AO
Ukrainian forces held back Russian attacks on Bohdanivka
A geolocated video showed Russian forces have military control of the Litak region of Bakhmut
Fighting continued in the Klischchiivka AO
Fighting continued on the northwestern edge of Horlivka
Fighting continued north, west, and south of the Krasnohorivka Plateau in the Avdiivka AO
Russian forces suffered catastrophic losses east of Stepove
Fighting continues in the industrial zone in southeastern Avdiivka
Fighting continued on the south flank of the Avdiivka AO
Russian forces made additional advances in northwestern Marinka
Ukrainian forces have fallen back to defensive lines on the eastern edge of Novomykhailivka
Fighting continued in the Orikhiv AO
Fighting continued in and south of Krynky in the Kherson AO
Russian launched the largest drone attack in the Odesa region since September 2022
At least 20 drones targeted the Danube River ports with damage in Izmail
Air raid alerts were issued in two Romanian regions for almost five hours
Eleven people were wounded by falling debris in the city of Odesa
One person wounded in the December 12 – 13 Shahed-136 attack on Odesa died of their injuries
In the Belgorod region, two Russian government officials were severely injured by a landmine
Unrelated to the previous bullet, the Freedom of Russia Legion reported successful military operations in the Belgorod region
Russian officials report nine Ukrainian drones were shot down over the Moscow and Kaluga regions
Ukrainian officials report that 41 of 42 Shahed-136 one-way drones were intercepted
Russia issued a stern warning to Romania, Slovakia, Poland, and the United States about providing deeper assistance to Ukraine
Russian hacker group Sontsepok claimed responsibility for the cyberattack on Kyivstar
Russia may not be using subsonic missiles against Ukraine because of the effectiveness of air defenses
President Zelenskyy arrived in Oslo, Norway, for an unannounced summit with the Nordic nations
If Iceland is not a Nordic nation, they were there too, and apologies in advance if we offended any Icelanders
Over 4,300 trucks are stuck at the borders of Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland
President Zelenskyy addressed his nation, urging them to continue the fight even if the world ends military support
Germany confirmed that an additional Patriot air defense battery is in Ukraine and will be operational by December 31
Norway is providing Ukraine with another NASAMS air defense system and other aid
Norway committed to provide $1.8 billion in aid to Ukraine
Denmark will announce a one-billion euro military aid package for Ukraine on December 14
The final military aid package to Ukraine from the United States could be up to $1 billion
NATO is increasing its 2024 military budget by 12%
Four Russian mobiks played the game, let’s get drunk in a bunker and throw grenades at each other
A former PMC Wagner Group penal mercenary was arrested for attempted murder
The Putin Purge continues with another activist arrest and a journalist already in prison facing new charges
The Kremlin has made over $2.5 million after taking over the African gold mining and oil interests developed by the defunct PMC Wagner Group
A video showed Russian troops from the 76th VDV Brigade using Ukrainian POWs as human shields
Russia has started filtration of Ukrainian passport holders and other dual citizens in the occupied regions of Donetsk and Luhansk
Russia shelled the Beryslav raion with thermite
Polish truckers tried to blockade the Yagodin-Dorogusk border checkpoint again were denied a permit and warned not to make further attempts
The E.U. unfroze 10 billion euros of 30 billion earmarked for Hungary
Slovakia confirmed it will not block E.U. negotiations with Ukraine
Austria signaled that it would not block E.U. negotiations with Ukraine
Spain indicated they supported negotiations with Ukraine and hoped they would start before December 31
Potential Dutch Prime Minister Geert Wilder distance himself from President Putin
Prime Minister of Poland Donald Tusk fired the leadership of all Polish special security services
U.S. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson refused to extend the ongoing Congressional session past December 15
Got milk?

Where's the damn podcast?

That is 100% on me. I am steadfast in no more work after 01:00 hours local time (here it is 03:30 again), and yesterday's SITREP wasn't complete until after 05:30 hours. That means no one to sign off on the script. Working on a solution. The challenge is as more and more OSINT accounts give up, get deleted by social media, or are canceled for the right or wrong reasons, the intelligence gathering for us keeps getting longer and longer. Israel-Hamas has not been an issue for the last week due to the cease-fire.

You can listen to previous podcasts through the Megaphone web app and your favorite podcast provider, including,

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