Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 22 APR 2023 23:59* - We Were Wrong About Kherson

Maps are still offline because it was mass reported for being illegal and dangerous. We talked to Google (a real human) and were assured it would take only 24 hours to solve. No maps in today's report, which is unfortunate because there are some major map changes.

You can use the original Rondeli Foundation map for today, which our map is based on. It does not have the same level of fidelity. Hopefully, our map will be back tomorrow. 

The big story? Ukraine has established a permanent bridgehead on the left bank (east bank) of the Dnipro River at Oleshky, 👀 south of the Konka River. This is more than special forces or a recon presence.

The second story? The situation degraded in Bakhmut with Russian forces securing Railroad Station 1.

Bonus story? A lot of small Ukrainian attacks across the line of conflict. Almost all of them are in places we would consider potential locations for a counteroffensive. I think our former military readers will be stroking their chins with a smile on their faces reading today's report.

Bonus, bonus story? Soil conditions and rainy weather continue to push out the first viable date for the launch of counteroffensive operations. 

KHARKIV

Dvorichna Operational Area- map temporarily disabled

• Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Ukrainian recon units attacked in the area of Synkivka, which is likely in the forested areas north of the village.
• The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported a Russian attack on Lyman Pershyi was repulsed. We will update the map when access is restored.

Kupyansk Operational Area - map temporarily disabled

• No activity

Kharkiv

• Kharkiv was hit by at least one S-300 antiaircraft missile used for a ground attack, setting a large fire to a civilian infrastructure facility in a residential area of the city. There were no reported casualties.
• A second Russian S-300 antiaircraft missile failed in flight outside of Kharkiv, exploding over a vegetable factory. Moderate damage was reported from falling debris.

LUHANSK

Svatove Operational Area - map temporarily disabled

• Russian Ministry of Defense reported fighting among squad-sized units in the area of Stelmakhivka, with Ukrainian forces initiating the attack.

Kreminna Operational Area - map temporarily disabled

• Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Ukrainian recon forces launched an attack in the area of Dibrova.
• Russian military milblogger reported positional fighting in the Serebryanskyy Forest area.

Lysychansk Operational Area - map temporarily disabled

• There were multiple Ukrainian reports that Ukrainian forces liberated Little Bilohorivka - again, around the chalk mine. The reported advance would be consistent with the claim of Russian POWs being taken into custody.

Occupied Luhansk

• The Luhansk People's Republic Joint Center for Control and Coordination reported that Alchevsk was hit by four rockets fired by HIMARS.

DONBAS REGION

NORTHEAST DONETSK

Siversk Operational Area - map temporarily disabled

• No activity

Soledar Operational Area - map temporarily disabled

• No activity

Bakhmut Operational Area - map temporarily disabled

• The Russian Ministry of Defense reported they completed 62 fire missions through the Soledar, Bakhmut, and Kostyantynivka Operational Areas/Direction, and six close air support sorties were conducted by Russian army aviation and the Russian Air Force (VKS).
• Russian mercenary milblogger Rybar claims that the bridge over the wash to the  Pivichnyi Reservoir on the T-506 Highway Ground Line of Communication (GLOC - supply line) in Khromove. We cannot confirm the claim, and while Rybar has been writing a lot of fan fiction about Bakhmut, this is a tough one to lie about.
• The Russian airborne (VDV) forces attempted to advance on Hryorivka for the first time in weeks and were unsuccessful.
• PMC Wagner's attempts to advance on Bohdanivka and Khromove were unsuccessful. The area north of Khromove and the approaches to the T-506 Highway is the area of the most intense fighting.
• In central Bakhmut, Railroad Station 1 has been completely destroyed and was captured by Russian forces. You can thank Russian trolls for having to imagine the map in your head.
• There is no change in the southern or southwestern part of Izyum, where fighting remains lighter.

Kostyantynivka Operational Direction - map temporarily disabled

• No activity

SOUTHWEST DONETSK

Toretsk/Niu York Operational Direction - map temporarily disabled

• No activity

Avdiivka Operational Area - map temporarily disabled

• Fighting between Novobakhmutkiva and Novokalynove continued with Russian forces held to the H-20 Highway.
• Russian and Ukrainian sources reported a Russian attempt to advance in the direction of Stepove failed.
• Donetsk Oblast Administrative and Military Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko reported only "isolated" shelling in the old part of Avdiivka.
• Only Rybar reported fighting in the no man's land between Sjeverne and Vodyane and claimed that Ukrainian forces were pushed out of "two critical defense positions." We cannot verify the claim.
• The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported an attempt to attack Pervomaiske was repulsed. We believe that Russian forces have only a toe hold in the eastern part or potentially have pushed back to Pisky, east of the H-50 Ring Road.
• Another day, another attack on the firebase at Nevelske ended in another Russian failure.

Marinka Operational Area - map temporarily disabled

• Only the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported continued fighting in Marinka, which was reportedly heavy. All attacks repulsed.
• WarGonzo reported that Ukrainian forces launched an offensive east of Pobjeda and were successful but did not provide any specific information.

Vuhledar Operational Area - map temporarily disabled

• The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported a Russian attack in the area of Vuhledar was repulsed. The city itself was heavily shelled and attacked by the Russian VKS.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Ukrainian forces went on the offensive in Pavlivka.

Occupied Donetsk

• Insurgents in Mariupol reported a convoy of 20 trucks carrying ammunition was moving in the direction of Berdyansk.

Velyka Novosilka Operational Direction - map temporarily disabled

• No activity

ZAPORIZHIA

Hulyaipole Operational Direction - map temporarily disabled

• WarGonzo reported that Ukrainian forces attacked Dorozhnyanka using recon-in-force and were able to resecure some lost positions.

Orikhiv Operational Direction - map temporarily disabled

• No activity

Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

• No update

Zaporizhia Oblast

• Russian forces conducted 66 fire missions, three air strikes, four UAV attacks, and two S-300 rocket attacks along the Zaporizhia line of conflict.

Occupied Zaporizhia

• In Melitopol, an IED exploded in the train depot, destroying a locomotive. Insurgents were blamed for the blast.
• It was reported that a Russian Mi-24 HIND attack helicopter suffered a catastrophic in-flight failure and crashed, killing all onboard. This is not related to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine's claim that a Mi-24 was shot down.
• We were able to obtain a video that we cannot share that confirms there was a massive artillery strike on Tokmak.

BLACK SEA/CRIMEA/MYKOLAIV/ODESA

• The Black Sea Fleet has eleven vessels on patrol, including two Kilo-class submarines capable of launching up to eight Kalibr cruise missiles.
• Our assessment that there was a high chance of a Russian missile strike on Ukraine was inaccurate. This is the first time since May of last year that there has not been a large-scale missile attack the day before, of, or after the Ramstein Working Group meeting.

WESTERN AND CENTRAL UKRAINE

Kherson - map temporarily disabled

• For weeks we have been reading reports of Russian forces shelling Oleskhy on the east bank of the Dnipro River. We dismissed these reports as Ukrainian forces deflecting collateral damage during documented counterbattery battles. Russian forces claimed on April 20 that Ukrainian troops had established a literal and metaphorical bridgehead on the southern side of the Antonovskyy Bridge with Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC) which we dismissed. We were wrong. Video today showed Ukrainian forces that are dug in and holding positions on the east bank of the Dnipro on the outskirts of Oleshky, south of the Konka River on the E-97 Highway. We don't know the status of Dachi or the dachas north of the Hnylusha River. Both of these areas are likely under Ukrainian control, considering how far inland they are from the river bank. You better believe there will be a map update.
• This would explain the very tight operational security that was established in Kherson in mid-March and the crackdown on reports of shelling in the eastern part of Kherson oblast.
• ASSESSMENT: Because of the potential implications of the upcoming offensive (somewhere), we will withhold our assessment. This is a very interesting development that we will monitor closely. We will add we are all completely shocked at this news. This is a significant indicator that Russian forces are suffering from ammunition shortages if Ukrainian troops are able to freely move across the Dnipro River.
• There are reports that Russian forces are evacuating civilians from Nova Kakhovka and establishing defensive positions. The city was shelled by Ukrainian forces. We can't verify these reports, but they have significant weight.

NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN UKRAINE

Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy

• In the Sumy oblast, the hromadas of Bilopillia, Yunakivka, Myropillia, and Nova Slobada were attacked with artillery shells and mortars. Sixty-four munitions hit cross-border communities, with no significant damage reported.

RUSSIAN FRONT

Belgorod

• Russian officials admitted a second bomb was dropped by accident on Belgorod the same night the FAB-1500S-E exploded in the city. The second bomb did not detonate. A third FAB-500 bomb landed in a park several days ago, which Russian officials initially denied. Today they evacuated 3,000 people in 17 apartment buildings so explosive ordnance disposal could disarm the unexploded bomb. It was unknown if the residents of Belgorod have asked Ukraine for air defense support from the Russian air force.

THEATERWIDE

Ukraine

• There were more public appeals for blood donations in Ukraine that exceed normal requests. We maintain this is a leading indicator that major activity is days to weeks away, dependent on the weather.

RUSSIAN MOBIKS

• No significant developments

WAR CRIMES

• No significant developments

GEOPOLITICS

• Germany ejected over 20 Russian diplomats for illegal activity, who have already been returned to Russia. The Kremlin vowed to take reciprocal action.