Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 21 APR 2023 23:59* - Back to Full Reports Tomorrow - Bakhmut Holds

Today is a condensed report because of the new grandbaby. Back to business tomorrow. There were no changes to the map - but - due to an unknown glitch, the gray zone in the Bakhmut Operational Area disappeared and can't be recovered. It will be rebuilt to the best of our abilities tomorrow. We appreciate your understanding.

KHARKIV

Dvorichna Operational Area - map

• Russian Ministry of Defense reported fighting among squad-sized units in the area of Synkivka. Russian mercenary milblogger WarGonzo claimed the settlement was captured by Russian forces, which contradicts the RMOD report and...
• ...General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and RMOD reported fighting in Lyman Pershyi, which is north of Synkivka and would indicate that Ukrainian forces advanced north from Synkivka.

Kupyansk Operational Area - map

• Russian Ministry of Defense reported fighting among squad-sized units in the area of Orlyanske. If you're fact-checking, Timkovka is a speck on the map adjacent to Orlyankse.

LUHANSK

Svatove Operational Area - map

• Russian Ministry of Defense reported fighting among squad-sized units in the area of Novoselivkse and Stelmakhivka.

Kreminna Operational Area - map

• WarGonzo reported positional fighting on the western edge of Kreminna with no success.
• Multiple sources reported positional fighting and artillery exchanges in the Serebryanskyy Forest and the Siverskyi Donets River floodplain west of Shypylivka with no change to the situation.

Lysychansk Operational Area - map

• The Luhansk Oblast Administrative and Military Governor Artem Lysohor (OVA) reported fighting Russian forces "tried" to advance "in the direction of" Bilohorivka. There were no other sources that claimed activity in the area. He also reported that Ukrainian forces captured Russian soldiers.

DONBAS REGION

NORTHEAST DONETSK

Siversk Operational Area - map

• No activity

Soledar Operational Area - map

• No activity

Bakhmut Operational Area - map

• The Russian Ministry of Defense reported they completed 69 fire missions through the Soledar, Bakhmut, and Kostyantynivka Operational Areas/Direction, and eight close air support sorties were conducted by Russian army aviation and the VKS.
• PMC Wagner's attempts to advance on Bohdanivka and Khromove were unsuccessful. Russian mercenary milblogger Rybar reported the T-506 Highway GLOC is still open, writing that Wagner was trying to "cut one of the two remaining roads to Bakhmut." It is unclear if Wagner is still in the treeline near Bohdanivka, so there was no map change.
• In the northern part of Bakhmut, a video confirmed that Ukrainian forces are firmly entrenched in the buildings one block southeast of Rose Alley, which does not support Russian claims of success in the area. We maintain that fighting continues on the southern edge of Rose Alley, and School 24 is under Ukrainian control.
• In the central part of Bakhmut, Russian mercenary milblogger Rybar claims fighting continues at Railroad Station 1. There have been supporting claims from any source on the capture of Hotel Transit.
• Russian milblogger Danill Bezsonov reported there was no change in territorial control.
• PMC Wagner has not issued an updated map since April 9.
• PMC Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin denied claims that Bakhmut is encircled, "It is too early to talk about the formation of a boiler for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Artemovsk, as before they are in the so-called “operational encirclement”, when the roads are shot through. But there is no boiler. So there are tough fights. And those who speak their tongues ahead - they only create problems for us."
• Russian propagandists are convinced the Ukrainian counteroffensive will be in Bakhmut but made the claim based on their belief the garrison is encircled. "The fall of the city and the surrender of the garrison is unacceptable for Zelenskyy, so the Ukrainian command will simply be forced to act." ASSESSMENT - cool story.
• Ukrainian troops have claimed they believe that Russian forces and PMC Wagner are holding back and are preparing a larger attack in the near future. Ground conditions remain very poor, and we question how much combat strength Russian forces have.
• No reports of fighting south of Ivanivske, and fighting in the southwestern part of the city is light.
• PMC Wagner released a video alleging Ukrainian is using chemical weapons in Bakhmut, and 📺 it is cringy bad acting.

Kostyantynivka Operational Direction - map

• No activity

SOUTHWEST DONETSK

Toretsk/Niu York Operational Direction - map

• No activity

Avdiivka Operational Area - map

• Fighting between Novobakhmutkiva and Novokalynove continued with Russian forces held to the H-20 Highway.
• Russian and Ukrainian sources reported a Russian attempt to advance in the direction of Stepove failed.
• The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian troops attempted to attack in the area of Kamyanka, with WarGonzo reporting a failed advance on Avdiivka from the southwest for the second day in a row. There was only scattered shelling of Avdiivka before the attack, indicating a continued shortage of ammunition for Russian forces.
• Russian and Ukrainian sources reported fighting in the no man's land between Sjeverne and Vodyane - we know this is on repeat - if the situation changes, you'll be among the first to know.
• WarGonzo wrote that Russian forces attempted to advance in "the direction of" Pervomaiske, hinting that Russian troops may be pushed back to the E-50 Highway to Pisky for the second time in 2023. We did not update the map. 
• The Donetsk People's Republic Militia released a video of fighting that they claimed was near Vodyane. The video was geolocated to the south of Nevelske and showed fighting on our current mapping of the line of conflict.

Marinka Operational Area - map

• Fighting along Druzhby Avenue continued with Rybar somewhat walking back the we almost have them surrounded claim from yesterday. Fighting is now "near" the fire station. WarGonzo reported all attacks failed, and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported there were near-constant attacks in the city center.
• Russian forces continued attempts to recapture positions they gave up east of Pobjeda.

Vuhledar Operational Area - map

• The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and WarGonzo reported fighting near Vuhledar.

Occupied Donetsk

• Insurgents in Mariupol reported trucks were moving prefabricated concrete bunkers through the city in the direction of Berdyansk. These are small rectangular bunkers, not the derisively called "septic tanks," which are larger.

Velyka Novosilka Operational Direction - map

• No activity

ZAPORIZHIA

Hulyaipole Operational Direction - map

• No activity

Orikhiv Operational Direction - map

• No activity

Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

• The International Atomic Energy Agency released an update stating that the situation has deteriorated.
• The inspectors at the plant have heard shelling almost every day over the past week. They were told to go to the bomb shelter once in the last week because of military action "in the region." 
• The 330-kilovolt line from the west bank of the Dnipro has still not been repaired. While shelling in the Nikopol raion is significantly reduced, and we have not reported on activity in some time, Chervonohryhorivka, where the transformer farm, 330 kV transmission lines, and solar energy farm are located,  has been shelled almost daily.
• Russian occupiers have not fulfilled their promise to repair the switches to the Zaporizhzhia Thermal Power Plant, which would provide a 330 kV backup line to ZNPP. The onsite IAEA inspectors said they would inspect the area to understand the issues and delays.
• IAEA Secretary General Rafael Grossi said, "I saw clear indications of military preparations in the area when I visited the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant just over three weeks ago. Since then, our experts at the site have frequently reported about hearing detonations, at times suggesting intense shelling not far from the site. I’m deeply concerned about the situation at the plant."
• ZNPP currently has only about a quarter of its regular maintenance staff available. New staff is being hired, but it will take some time until they are fully trained. The plant said a substantial list of required spare parts has recently been submitted to Rosatom, the Russian state nuclear company. As a result of the significant reduction of staff, the ZNPP currently does not have a systematic maintenance and in-service inspection schedule.
• The on-site IAEA inspectors also reported there is extensive damage to windows in the turbine hall of Unit 4, which Russian occupiers claim was caused by a land mine detonation on April 12. In the strongest language to date, Grossi wrote the "location that appears [in is] inconsistent with being caused by the previously reported landmine explosions." The IAEA reports from ZNPP have never come this close to stating that Russian occupiers are sharing false information.
• Reactor 6 is being brought to a cold shutdown as planned over the weekend.

Zaporizhia Oblast

• At the time of publication, there were reports of two significant explosions in Zaporizhzhia.
• Russian forces conducted 60 fire missions, three UAV attacks, and no air strikes along the Zaporizhia line of conflict.

Occupied Zaporizhia

• No activity

BLACK SEA/CRIMEA/MYKOLAIV/ODESA

• The Black Sea Fleet has nine vessels on patrol, including two Kilo-class submarines capable of launching up to eight Kalibr cruise missiles.
• There was a major blackout on the occupied Crimean Peninsula, including Simferopol, Saki, Krasnogvardeisky, Krasnoperekopsky, Dzhankoy, Dzhankoysky, and most of Sevastopol. Local officials gave no reason for the widespread power outages.

WESTERN AND CENTRAL UKRAINE

Dnipropetrovsk

• Four more Iranian-sourced Shahed-136 kamikaze drones were shot down. There were no reports of casualties or damage.

Vinnytsia

• Capital Natalyia Humeniuk, head of the Joint Coordination Press Center for Operational Command South (OKS), reported that "there have been hits on an infrastructure facility in our region, in Vinnytsia Oblast. But still, most of the Shaheds were shot down." An "infrastructure" facility was hit but not related to power generation or distribution.

NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN UKRAINE

Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy

• No activity

RUSSIAN FRONT

Belgorod

• The bomb that exploded in Belgorod was a FAB-1500S-E with a 20-second delay fused. The bomb struck the sidewalk adjacent to the road at a major and busy intersection, burying itself into the earth. Incredibly it exploded just as traffic finished passing, launching at least two parked cars at least 25 meters into the air. Had the bomb not had a delayed fuse, it would have been catastrophic. The entire incident was 📺 captured on a security camera.

Tuva (Tula)

• The Russian S-400 air defense system that crashed into a ditch was driven by a 33-year-old contract soldier who was drunk at the time, according to Russian state media agency Baza. He could face prosecution for "damage to military property through negligence" and up to five years in a Russian penal colony.

THEATERWIDE

Ukraine

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a meeting of the Stavka with a public readout. "The front line is the number one priority. We are also actively preparing new brigades and units that will prove themselves at the front. The question of their provision, training, and integration into the general Defense Plan. Every time at the meetings of the Stavka, we add important details."
• In Odessa, a music teacher was fired for teaching Russian classic music in the classroom. According to the report, a student refused to listen to the music of Russian composers Tchaikovsky and Rachmaninoff and complained to the leadership of the Odessa Theater and Art College. The 82-year-old teacher was fired.
• Editor's Note: Tchaikovsky was born in Ukraine and wrote several operas and symphonies dedicated to his birth home, but admittedly has a more complicated history. Rachmaninoff was born in Russia but fled to the United States in 1918, where he lived until his death from cancer in 1943. The truth matters; this is a story that needs to be reported. It is very challenging to tell a nation at war what it should and should not do. Censorship of the classical arts is not compatible with a free society, and Rachmaninoff's most famous works weren't written until he fled to the United States.
• After Ramstein 11, Latvia agreed to send its entire inventory of Stinger MANPAD antiaircraft missiles to Ukraine. Portugal announced it was sending five armor personnel carrier ambulances - three M113s and two M577s. Canada announced it was sending a military aid package that includes 40 Prairie Gun Works sniper rifles, 16 radio and communication stations for Leopard 2 tanks, and $34.6 million in monetary assistance for unspecified suppliers and fuel.
• The Associated Press reported that 31 M1A1 Abrams tanks would arrive in Germany by the end of May, with Ukrainian forces starting a ten-week training program after their arrival. This is months ahead of the previously announced schedule.
• The commander of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Mykola Oleschuk, checked the deployment of the "Patriot" air defense system in an undisclosed location in Ukraine, confirming the system is combat operational.

RUSSIAN MOBIKS

• Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov continues to be in damage control mode with electronic and SMS text subpoenas being sent for conscription after Moscow promised the electronic system would not be used until the fall. "There is no talk in the Kremlin about any wave of mobilization," Peskov repeated despite numerous claims from the State Duma that one was necessary.
• YouTube took down PMC Wagner's channel and removed all related videos.
• In Melitopol, a Russian soldier driving a Tor antiaircraft system rolled it over in the middle of the city, marking the second incident in 72 hours.
• The head of PMC Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, claimed that the 33-year-old son of Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, Nikolai, served as a mercenary on an Urgan Multiple Launch Rocket System in Ukraine as a Wagner mercenary.
• The announcement comes conveniently the day after the state Duma authorized veteran status and benefits for PMC Wagner mercenaries who complete their duty with the PMC.

WAR CRIMES

• In December 2022, Prigozhin facilities a POW swap of 28 Ukrainian soldiers for a priest of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate. Ukrainian officials confirmed the previously unreported exchange.