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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 15 APR 2023 23:59* - Frozen Front, For Now

Added 2023-04-16 09:48:18 +0000 UTC

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This is Report 359, which is 46 pages, combat only.

What's the big story? One of the shortest combat sections since we started producing Situation Reports. We're unsure what has caused operational tempo to slow as much as it did.

The second story? She goes by Donbass Devushka. She claims she is from Luhansk. She claims she hates Ukraine because of the brutality she witnessed. However it's all a lie, and the United States government has questions it needs to answer. A special report - A Russian Disinformation Empire in Oak Harbor, Washington

The Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Podcast for yesterday is available on:

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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 15 APR 2023 23:59* - Frozen Front, For Now

Comments

A lot of focus on Girkin because Girkin is right in his predictions about 95% of the time since Feb 24, 2022. That's a track record that can't be ignored. You can hate the man, you can't his history, you can acknowledge he is an awful war criminal, but you can respect his insight into the war. I'd argue he is the most accurate analyst over the last 14 months - period. Admittedly he has insider insight specific to the Avdiivka and Marinka Operational Areas. Not as much in Bakhmut as people think, as he's dead to PMC Wagner. Murz falls into the same boat, and Murz is even more awful than Girkin, but he too is darn close to 95% accurate on his insights in northeast Donetsk oblast and last year in Izyum. He predicted the collapse and how it would happen back in June. We use a lot of sources - weight goes to who is the most right. There is a long explainer in the SITREP of the front on who we do and don't trust on a regular basis and what info we use. Seymon Pegov is every bit as awful as Murz or Girkin - and I wouldn't trust one of his "combat" videos for anything. But their daily updates are oddly darn close to spot on (if about 24 hours behind), and every now and then, they get things right. For right or wrong, WarGonzo's coverage of the fighting for Lyman was 100% accurate. The most accurate reporting of any source. You had to cut through the Russian stonk we awesome fighters Kremlin language. They repeatedly said Ukraine is not fighting in Lyman, it's outside the city, it's small attacks, they're creeping closer, Ukraine owns the woods, etc. They were right. We don't know what happened to Valentina on his team (was a war journalist). The last assignment was in Kherson, and he disappeared after that. I think he was too much of a journalist, and I say that very great sincerity. For Russian State Media, he definitely skated the line of reporting reality. His last report was about how Chechens and Russians were shooting at each other (blocking troop conflict maybe). I guess he was fired and sent back to Russia in the end. I'll freely admit in the Russian info space, there are two people I'd sit and talk to for an hour out of journalistic curiosity. Girkin and Valentina. Girkin because one hour with him would be fascinating - as long as there were no boundaries on what could be asked. Valentina, because I believe in a 1:1 environment, you'd get an honest assessment of what he saw, what he thinks, and what his assessment is. Many people in the West find Girkin an interesting figure - but that is said in the, "you know he was such a quiet neighbor. Seemed like a nice guy. Said hi a few times and we were over once. He had some odd ideas but nothing out of the ordinary. We were so shocked to wake up and see all the FBI vans outside and learn there were 20 bodies in his basement..."

2023-04-18 22:37:43 +0000 UTC

I don't really get western fascination on russian Game of Thrones. It seems so fake after being close to it. Like they got about 20 people in power murdered so far, and none of them had any public falling out of favor etc. Russian regime loves to have handy opponents, like Prigozhin, Navalny etc. They of course have their own opinions, but largely inconsequential and do not influence pretty much anything. But the West for some reason is captivated by this personalities. And like Girking. Come on, dude is war criminal. Why so much focus on him? If he would be so inconvenient he would be long dead. Imo, it is mostly for show to entertain observers.

2023-04-17 02:48:41 +0000 UTC

What are people’s thoughts on this Prigozhin video? https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/12o64kl/prigozhin_wagner_now_making_some_some_statements/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1

2023-04-16 21:07:20 +0000 UTC

Sounds like Russia is preparing for ukraines counter offensive-minimizing offensives to stock up on ammunition, etc. Unfortunately the longer Ukraine waits, the more russia can stockpile. I really hope it's because russia is running out of ammo but that is an awfully big decrease in offensive activity. I know Ukraine has to prepare but so is russia. I notice that in one of the recently leaked documents dated Feb 23rd the pentagon states that China did indeed agree to provide Russia lethal aid but China wanted to keep it secret, disguised as civilian items. That could be a big problem depending on how much russia has been given.

2023-04-16 13:43:48 +0000 UTC

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