Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 14 APR 2023 13:30 PDT - Girkin in the Frying Pan

Our favorite FSB Colonel, convicted war criminal, Kremlin pariah, and failed mobik, Igor Strelkov Girkin, wrote on this Telegram, "Dear readers! As for the reports about the charges brought against me, I have not yet received any official papers from the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and, therefore, there is nothing to comment on, in general. So far, I can only say that - regardless of the further actions of the authorities - I will behave, speak, act exactly the same as I have behaved until now. No changes in the rhetoric "will not be from the word at all." It will not work to intimidate me, but we will soon find out whether the authorities are ready to "stop" me."

There may be a bit more to this story in an ongoing Game of Thrones that just hurts the brain. Yevgeny Prigozhin has gone after Girkin using his social media channels.

Yevgeny Prigozhin told his media arm Concord Group that even if Girkin-Strelkov is imprisoned after being checked by the Ministry of Internal Affairs, he still has no chance of getting into the Wagner PMC. Arguments from the head of the musicians: "Earlier, I offered Girkin-Strelkov to join our PMC. He refused, and he showed himself to be a complete coward. We don't take panties. Getting into the colony wouldn't help him either since we don't take prisoners from the zones now. We don't take the offended. Girkin-Strelkov is a complete bastard, talker, and useless creature. Recall that the ex-Minister of Defense of the DPR is now being checked under the article on discrediting the RF Armed Forces. A Muscovite turned to the police, who were outraged by the publications of Girkin-Strelkov in social networks, as well as his "Angry Patriots Club", where he "openly criticizes the country's leadership."

It is unclear what Girkin will be charged with or when he'll be charged. He has suggested he could face two charges.

First, "discrediting the Russian Federation Armed Forces" or violating the so-called "don't say war" laws. Honestly, that's an open-and-shut case, but it is highly unlikely Girkin would go to prison for this. A fine, and don't let us see you making YouTubes and Telegrams again. Girkin will go quiet for a week or two, wade back into the water, and go right back to his old act.

The second possibility is "Fraud with the collection of humanitarian aid." The Russian Federation terminology for "humanitarian aid" typically means for soldiers and could range from socks and rations to drones and weapons. The other thing we don't know, because the Russian Federation is taking over the prosecutors officers in the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics, is if this is related to events of 2022 or if this is going backward to 2014. Girkin recently faced allegations that he took vast sums of money with him in 2014 when Moscow yanked him out of the Donbas for the failures at Slovyansk and the growing heat around the downing of MH-17. This would be a far more serious charge in a court system with a 99% conviction rate.

While he has done his dog and pony show since February of last year, he has turned up the rhetoric, going directly after Russian President Vladimir Putin. Girkin has a fan base, and he also has a lot of enemies. His enemies and the number of people he's angered likely outnumber his supporters. The pending allegations come just days after he went after the Nevelsky Battalion, accusing the leaders of fraud and malfeasance. Based on over two-dozen reports from various mobik units from the Russian Federation, there are a group of individuals within the Donetsk People's Republic who have tremendous political and legal power that extends to the highest levels of the Kremlin. Girkin may have gone too far.

This isn't the first time we've faced the loss of Girkin as a source. He was detained in August 2022 and got quiet for a couple of weeks before starting his criticism again. If you're newer to our analysis, here is the important thing. Girkin is right. A lot. His predictions in the Donbas have been consistently correct. The issues that he points out and discusses are real problems, and sometimes he points out obvious solutions that will never get executed.

There has been a lot of speculation that Girkin is somehow protected. The most logical answer would be from someone within the FSB, given he was (well is) part of that organization. Girkin loves his homeland (he's Russian) and is fully committed to the destruction of the Ukrainian government. Not the Ukrainian people or the resources of Ukraine. My personal view is he deeply believes that Ukraine is illegitimate, doesn't exist, and is part of Russia. He's also racist and antisemitic, and his war crimes go beyond shooting down MH-17.

Could Girkin flee either to avoid arrest on the run or turn himself into The Hague in exchange for what he knows, banking that time in a Western European prison will be vastly better than a Russian one? My personal opinion after following the man for more than a year, and a belief that I understand him who he is, I don't see it. I won't rule it out, but I would say it is less than a 5% chance. Further, he would have an incredibly hard time getting across the border. Everyone knows who he is on both sides.

Silencing a high-profile voice like Girkin is a challenging political move for the Kremlin. However, Shoigu and Prigozhin are in a truce of convenience, and a good patriot is a terrified patriot. The Russian Ministry of Defense needs an enemy, and for right now, it isn't "turbo patriots." Not until PMC Wagner has been ground to dust, then it will go back to "turbo patriots."

So who is the new enemy of the Kremlin? Apparently, the league of angry patriots who are, ironically, committed to seeing Russian win in Ukraine. Thank God the Kremlin is not listening because if people like Girkin had a seat at the big kid's table, Russia would be in a much better position on the battlefield.