Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 08 APR 2023 16:00 PDT - Bakhmut Update

PMC Wagner released its latest map and update on the situation in Bakhmut, and I guess we shouldn't have been shocked to learn that the claims made by Russian state media, WarGonzo, Rybar, and pro-Russian accounts have been, for the most part - untrue.

We see no reason for PMC Wagner to minimize their gains. As we've previously reported, the last update overstated their gains, as did Prigozhin's capture the flag claim from over a week ago. That claim, "We raised our flag on a pile of rubble; hence we now control the city "legally," is another glass of room temperature milk aging away in the sun.

An interactive version of the war map is available. It is not fully updated from today's intel, but there is a nice surprise north of Krasnohorivka.

PMC Wagner reports that the Church of All Saints is not under Russian control. Based on that intelligence, we moved the line of conflict east. Wagner also did not claim to have captured the State Police Station, contrary to Rybar's earlier claim today. They did report they were advancing toward the grain elevators and the "fork" of the train tracks. That's near the police station, and we did adjust the line of conflict to the west one block.

Wagner also said that Ukraine still controls the Avanhard stadium, contrary to Rybar's second false claim of its capture in a month, and it is not surrounded. We did adjust the map based on their report and shrunk the salient south of the stadium.

Wagner was emphatic that their forces had not reached the Mig, have never reached the Mig, and, more interesting, that the T-504 Highway is still usable by Ukraine. Rybar channeled classic disinformation techniques, using the "some people say. Smart people. Good people. That Russia has advanced past the Mig. Good people. That's what they tell us."

Nope.

There was a video released yesterday showing Ukrainian forces preparing for a raid, with the person who released it adding they were not breaking operational security because Ukraine had already lost the position days ago. That video caused a firestorm of reports that Ukraine lost the Mig and the southern defensive line was broken. There was a debate on if the video was authentic, the timing of its release, and how to process the claim. Why would a Ukrainian source release this kind of information, and if true, how come we're only hearing about a successful Russian advance in a critical area "days" after it happened?

We were able to talk to a contact overnight Seattle time that said it was not only 100% untrue, but the video did violate operational security as that area is still under Ukrainian control and was being used - until the video got released - as a FOB. If anything, the video has damaged the defense of the area.

Our skepticism in yesterday's SITREP about the claim was due to the fact that there have been no pictures or videos released by Russian forces, not even a DRG unit sneaking in for a quick run-for-your-life propaganda picture report selfie of the area around the Mig. We elected not to amplify the video out of concern that the follow on reply, "and this doesn't break operational security," to the original video was an "oh crap, I screwed up, and the Internet is forever" reaction.

Yes, it is in the wild, just like the classified US documents leaked, but part of journalistic ethical standards is "minimize harm." You don't amplify damaging information.

The Wagner report added, "The supply route from Chasiv Yar has not yet been physically cut. Reports of the fall of Bakhmut are, to put it mildly, premature."

And that's what we know.

I want to thank our supporters for your faith and trust in our coverage. We have not embraced the Bakhmut is doomed narrative while questioning every step of the way Ukrainian claims. Given our position is contrarian to stay the least (ISW and a few others align with our assessment), I'm incredibly proud of our Bakhmut coverage since our return from the January break. I would think for some of our subscribers, the thought, "They say the truth matters, but this is starting to sound pretty Ukrainian cheerleading about Bakhmut," has entered some minds. Coverage of the truth would not be possible without supporters like you, and we deeply appreciate your understanding as we untangle the fog of war.

I'll close by repeating one assessment I stand by. Anyone who says Bakhmut will fall by X date or in X days is not worth listening to. The only people that have real visibility into that level of intelligence are the Russian and Ukrainian General Staff and PMC Wagner senior leaders. Anyone else is just throwing out guesses.