Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 29 MAR 2023 15:30 PDT - PMC Wagner Releases a Map Update

Evaluating and mapping urban warfare is incredibly difficult. Once combatants start fighting in an urban environment, progress is measured in meters, and control of buildings, homes, and even outbuildings, can change several times a day. Attacks can break through defensive lines but lack the ability to hold territorial gains. Artillery strikes can force retreats, but counterbattery can turn the area into a no man's land. Friendly fire incidents increase. The situation is fluid, and our sources are limited to reports who have volunteered to work for us, video and picture geolocation, and aggregating reports from Ukraine and Russia.

We have found that PMC Wagner has been mostly honest in their map updates for Bakhmut once the city's suburban regions were reached. This is an improvement from Soledar, where PMC Wagner and the Russian Ministry of Defense were pushing a narrative that resulted in several Russian state media journalists being killed or gravely wounded, creating "we won" reports before areas were under military control.

What's the verdict?

Orikhovo-Basylivka, Minkivka: We were favoring Russian forces and PMC Wagner significantly. This is the area of the largest map change. We did not move the line of conflict but significantly reduced the gray zone based on PMC Wagner's latest map. Our assessment that Rybar was writing fan fiction in this area was accurate.

Bohdanivka, Khromove: A bit mixed. We adjusted no man's land west and north of Bohdanivka, pulling it further north. We moved no man's land slightly southeast of Bohdanivka. Around Khromove, no changes.

North Bakhmut: No changes. PMC Wagner shows they're about one block further south on the east bank of the Pivnichnyi Reservoir, but recent videos don't support this. Due to the positional nature of urban warfare, no changes, and it's the only place to the north we're out of alignment.

East Bakhmut: No changes; we're in alignment.

Southeastern Bakhmut: No changes; we're in alignment. In a couple of spots, we have Wagner one block further north than they have mapped. In other areas, we have them one block south. 

Southwest Bakhmut: No changes, and in this area, we're pleasantly surprised. There have been a lot of claims from non-Wagner sources that the mercenaries had breached Korsunskogo Street. They don't indicate this.

Ivanivske: We're close to aligned, but there is one oddity. Ukrainian source and Yevgeny Prigozhin have stated that PMC Wagner is not leading the fight here. Their current map indicates their units are. We believe that Russian forces have consistently overstated their territorial control in this area. This is the one location we're not adjusting the map due to the inconsistency on the claim of who is fighting and Ukrainian and Russian reports (ignoring Rybar) that the situation here hasn't changed in weeks.

Links and updated map in tonight's SITREP as always.