Russia-Ukraine SITEP B 07 JUN 2023 23:59 PDT - Bullet Report Summary

The team is dealing with an unprecedented amount of misinformation and disinformation, making it incredibly challenging to hold to our commitment of right over first. There were dozens of Russian reports over the last 6 to 8 hours of a major offensive kicked off by Ukraine in the Orikhiv Operational Area, and it appears that "this is the offensive" claims from Russian information sources.

The information space about the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam is also in uncharted territory. This translated 📺 debate on Russian State Media TV has politicians and talking heads arguing that the dam collapsed, Russia blew it up, and Ukraine blew it up, forcing the host to end the discussion and move to the next segment. We've never seen anything like this since the start of Russia's so-called "special military operation," where typically, there would be the token voice of reason and a unified message by other people in the discussion. Strongly suggest you watch the video.

Ukraine has locked down operational security, which is understandable, but this exceeds the information security experienced during the Kherson counteroffensive. Not only is the public and semi-public space locked down, but our contacts are also quiet, and one of the journalists who work with us in Ukraine was not permitted to enter an area that currently is not a "red zone." The challenge is this has created an information vacuum, and nature hates a vacuum, so my source is "trust me, bro," is filling the gaps.

We knew Russia would increase disinformation as the Ukrainian offensive would start in earnest, and thankfully some Russian sources, especially the Russian Ministry of Defense, have been sharing very obvious disinformation. The bigger problem is that any main battle tank seen, any platoon of light infantry, and any HIMARS rocket that hits a building creates a storm of "the big offensive has started" in the Russian information space. As of today, if you go by the Russian Ministry of Defense numbers, they have rendered up to eight Ukrainian brigades combat ineffective. An absolutely ridiculous claim.

While the panic and paranoia are humorous on the surface, it is creating a repeating cycle of, 

1) Ukraine is making huge advances. Massive attack. This is it. They're breaking through our positions.

2) We beat back the attack. We destroyed 50 vehicles and killed thousands. They just ran to their deaths in a human wave attack. Glorious victory.

The reality ranges from platoon and company-sized probing attacks and ordinary artillery strikes that are part of ongoing shaping operations. In some cases, there is no attack at all; it is just Russian fan fiction.

This situation was on full display yesterday when three sources we consider reliable or semi-reliable, who have consistently provided very accurate information in the Avdiivka Operational Area - WarGonzo - DeepState (Ukrainian source) - Igor Strelkov Girkin - were in total disagreement about Opytne. The fighting over who was right/wrong continued publicly in the social media space today. We've never seen anything like this, either.

We can't imagine what the information space will look like when the counteroffensive really starts. As I type this, there is a renewed debate with the European side of our analyst team on if the real offensive has started because of continued reports of activity around Orikhiv and Hulyaipole with little evidence. 

After this long wall of text, tonight is a bullet report with what we believe is rooted in trusted facts. Items where we have low confidence, will be noted.

RUSSIAN FRONT

Sherbekino Operational Area

• It is unclear if Russian partisans remain in Novaya Tavolzhanka at the time of publication, with Belgord Regional Governor Gladkov visiting the settlement
• Russian partisans have continued to maintain positions in the forest tracks near the settlement, which was hit with 57 artillery rounds, mortars, and Grad rockets
• The Free Russian Legion and Russian Volunteer Corps claimed that fighting continued, and Ukrainian source DeepState reported "no change"
• After claiming less than 500 people remained in Sherbekino, Mayor Vladimir Zhdanov told the Russian state media agency RT that 2,700 people remain in the city
• The Ministry of Internal Affairs reported 250 more people were evacuated
• Governor Gladkov reported the city was hit by 460 artillery rounds, mortars, Grad rockets, and over two-dozen drone-delivered IEDs - there were no injuries
• Another large fire erupted in the industrial district at a paint factory
• Governor Gladkov claimed he traveled through eight rural villages in the border region of Chermshoe, where residents say there is no water, electricity, communications, fuel, or open stores - he vowed to have power restored within the next two days

Belgorod Region

• Russian nationalists, Russian Partisans, nor Ukrainian sources have reported significant fighting or artillery activity in this region before today
• In the city of Belgorod, air defenses were active again, with claims that two "targets" were shot down
• Residents resettled from Belgorod to other regions are complaining about poor conditions, including not enough beds for families, undrinkable water, no refrigerators or other places to store food, dirty rooms, staffed by people with "terrible attitudes" who ask, "Why did you even come here at all," according to one family

KHARKIV

• Operational tempo has reduced in Masyutivka with only positional fighting, according to DeepState

LUHANSK

Svatove Operational Area

• The Russian Ministry of Defense (RMOD) reported that Ukrainian forces were on the offensive near Novoselivkse with no change in the situation

Kreminna Operational Area

• The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (GSAFU) reported that Russian forces launched an attack in the area of Kreminna without success - they did not specify geography, but it has been several weeks since fighting has been reported on the western edge of the city - in our assessment this is likely on the edge of the Serebryanskyy Woods
• On the subject of the Serebryanskky Woods, RMOD reported that Ukrainian forces were on the offensive in the area

Lysychansk Operational Area

• There was traditional fighting near Bilohorivka [Luhansk], with no change in the situation

NORTHEAST DONETSK

Siversk Operational Area

• GSAFU reported that Russian forces attempted to advance out of Berestove without success
• GSAFU also reported a failed Russian advance in the direction of Vesele, with several Ukrainian sources reporting that Ukrainian forces were able to make a marginal advance, securing the ridge north of Yakovlivka - the distance isn't far, less than 500 meters, so we made a small change to the map

Bakhmut Operational Area - Northwest

• RMOD reported that Ukrainian forces were attacking in the direction of Dubovo-Vasylivka but did not specify if they were approaching from the south, east, or west of the salient
• Multiple sources reported Ukrainian advances on the outskirts of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, but did not specify if the attack was in the direction of Dubovo-Vasylivka or Zaliznyanske north of the M-03 Highway - either direction would be working to eliminate a Russian salient on the north flank

Bakhmut Operational Area - North

• Fighting continued in Berkhivka, with other reports aligning with our update and assessment from June 6, and that fighting had reached the village
• RMOD also reported a Ukrainian attack in the direction of Yahidne, which could align with the ongoing offensive push toward Berkhivka, which is driving a wedge between the two settlements
• RMOD insists there has been no Ukrainian advance in this area, but if you look at the map, the only way Ukraine could be attacking in the direction of Yahidne is if a wedge has been created between the settlement and reservoir

Bakhmut Operational Area

• RMOD and WarGonzo reported that Ukrainian forces were on the offensive in western Bakhmut 

Klishchiivka Operational Area

• GSAFU reported that a Russian attempt to regain lost positions south of Ivanivske was, once again, unsuccessful
• GSAFU reported a Russian attack in the area of Klischiivka failed, and WarGonzo reported that Ukrainian forces remained on the offensive
• GSAFU also reported that Russian forces attempted to advance in the direction of Predtechyne, suggesting that at least a platoon-sized force crossed the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal
• RMOD reported that Ukrainian forces were on the offensive in the direction of Andriivka, which suggests that Ukrainian forces are on the east side of the canal in the same area
• ASSESSMENT: there was fighting in the area of the Siverski Donets-Donbas Canal between Predtechyne and Andriivka, and we have trust issues

SOUTHWEST DONETSK

Avdiivka Operational Area

• We have low confidence in a report by GSAFU of fighting in the area of Avdiivka due to the way the report was written
• Russian forces made another attempt to advance on Pervomaiske from the south without success

Marinka Operational Area

• Marinka? Yes. Chechen Akhmat made 22 attempts to advance supported by the Russian Airforce (VKS) with no success

Velyka Novosilka Operational Area

• RMOD reported fighting in the area of Novodonetske, as did multiple Russian sources
• RMOD also reported fighting in the area of Neskuchne, although we have low confidence in this report
• On the Zaporizhia-Donetsk administrative border, RMOD reported a Ukrainian attack in the area of Levadne [Zaporizhia]

ZAPORIZHIA

• Russian sources are reporting Ukrainian attacks in the Orikhiv Operational Area, including Novopokrovka, Robotyne, Nesterianka, Lobkove, Zherbyanky, and Luhove - while we are convinced there is combat activity in this area initiated by Ukraine, the analyst team is in near hand-to-hand combat themselves over if this is the start of the offensive or probing attacks - we cannot make a determination at this time
• Russian claims range from platoons working in coordinated attacks to full combat brigades

MYKOLAIV

• Backflow has raised the Pivdennyi Buh River almost a meter, causing minor flooding in the Zavodsky, Korabelny, and Central District of Nizhnyaya Naberezhna, and opening up small sinkholes near the riverfront

KHERSON

• Flooding has crested in Kherson and Nova Kakhovka, with water receding as much as 6 meters in Russian-occupied Nova Kakhovka
• Ukrainian drone operators have swapped out IEDs, mortars, and grenades and instead are carrying 📺 bottled water and food to airdrop to civilians stuck in their homes and rooftops in occupied Kherson
• Russians on the other hand are using drones to target rescuers with artillery and mortars in Free Kherson

THEATERWIDE

• "The counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has not yet begun," said National Security Council for Ukraine Secretary Alexei Danilov in a comment to Reuters
• According to Danilov, Russians mistakenly believe that "local Ukrainian offensive operations in different sectors of the front as the start of a larger one," and "the military will decide when the start will be. When we launch a counteroffensive, everyone will know about it. They will see it."
• Editor's Note: No closed-door meeting of the Stavka without a public readout and no artillery barrage that lights up NASA FIRMS like a Christmas tree? The main offensive hasn't started.