Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 29 MAY 2023 12:15 PDT - About Those 'Destroyed' Patriot Missile Systems and 2,000 Tanks

Patriot Missile Systems Were Not Destroyed

We now have confirmation that the Russian reports were inaccurate.

Kyiv was targeted with 11 Iskander-M short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM), and all 11 were shot down. The only systems capable of targeting SRBMs in Ukraine are SAMP/T and Patriot.

Missile debris from interceptors and downed Iskanders caused minor damage, 

NASA Fire Information for Resource Management Systems (FIRMS) showed four thermal anomalies in remote and forested areas northeast of Kyiv.

Over the last week, Russia has launched approximately 35 Shahed-136 kamikaze drones a day, which would be just over 1,100 a month. This far exceeds the export capability of Iran, which we estimated to be around 325 a month last year. It is likely, based on the current rate of consumption, that the Russian Federation was stockpiling Shahed-136 drones over the winter, launching 273 from January 1 to April 30. However, the current rate of consumption, even accounting for stockpiling, is unsustainable.

It's a similar situation with cruise missiles. Russia did not launch many Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles from March 9 to May 8, and we had assessed they were likely stockpiling their supply. The current rate of consumption is unsustainable unless the Russian Ministry of Defense has decided to tap into its strategic reserve.

The truly alarming event today is the Russian Ministry of Defense admitted publicly they targeted civilians, saying today's strikes were revenge for attacking civilians in Donetsk. Longtime readers and listeners know we've been able to analyze at least two attacks on Donetsk as originating from within Russian-occupied regions due to the weapons involved and their capabilities.

2002 Russian Tanks Have Left the Chat

The Oryx Database has visually confirmed the destruction of 2,002 Russian medium duty and main battle tanks since February 24, 2022 - about 4-1/2 per day. The real number is closer to 2,560, with approximately 78% of destroyed equipment documented with photo or video evidence. This is more tanks than the 10th largest force on the planet - South Korea.

United States Senator Lindsey Graham (SC-R) is the Drama

Two days ago, Lindsey Graham told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that the money allocated to the Russia-Ukraine War by the United States is the "best money spent" because it is being used to kill Russians. Graham has been one of the more vocal warhawks in the United States government and called for providing Ukraine with ATACMS longer-range "short-range" missiles and cluster munitions.

The Kremlin, which has repeatedly threatened the world with nuclear annihilation, openly said they have the authority to destroy decision-making centers in Brussels, London, Paris, and Berlin and the power to target world leaders, was very unhappy with Senator Graham's comments. In response, Moscow has issued an arrest warrant for Graham, who told reporters today that he wears the warrant as a badge of honor.

ASSESSMENT: Graham's words were less than diplomatic and a gaffe coming from a senior senator with decades of political experience. However, Russia's position on the comment is equivalent to diplomatic gaslighting.