Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 27 OCT 2022 13:45 PDT - Why OPSEC Matters

Even we were surprised by this, and it's an important lesson for any belligerent engaged in warfare in the 21st Century.

Yesterday, we reported on the oil train explosion in occupied-Shakhtarsk, Donetsk. There were countless videos on social media shared by Russian and Ukrainian sources, and it has since been clarified a HIMARs strike caused the explosion.

Before anyone wails about false equivalency and why we would share this information, once again, Russian state media made a public release of the aftermath. RIA approved TASS, which as public as you can get, released a video that was the equivalent of a detailed battle damage assessment (BDA). It showed what was damaged and what wasn't damaged.

Shakhtarsk Railroad Yard Attack Aftermath - TASS

Shakhtarsk Railroad Yard Attack Aftermath - Russia-24 - Boris Maksudov 

In concert with TASS, the People's Militia of the Donetsk People's Republic released a series of photos with dates, times, and exact locations, providing a complete BDA.

DNR Battle Damage Assessment OPSEC Fail 

You know where this is going. Two hours after the videos and photos showed what was and wasn't damaged, there was a second, larger HIMARS strike that hit more targets in the area. Based on the new information, the fuel storage tanks were successfully targeted.

Because the videos by Russian state media showed the fuel train hadn't been fully destroyed, and the undamaged rail cars had been moved further down the tracks away from the railyard - you guess it.

Second strike in Shakhtarsk Fuel Train 

We know some of our readers are frustrated with the limited amount of information out of Kherson and our refraining from using sources that are outside of the public domain. This is exactly why Ukrainian officials have locked down information. So these situations don't happen.

After eight months of total war, you would think the Kremlin would have figured out that providing detailed videos after an attack only helps Ukraine, but they haven't figured it out, and it doesn't fit their narrative. Russia is deep in a disinformation campaign and attempting to portray Ukraine as a villain. See, they attacked a fuel train! Evil! Look what they did! Russia doesn't do this, only Ukraine!

The deep desire to force a narrative has thrown military sensibility out a locked from the outside fifth-floor window. The second strike wasn't preventable. Eventually, Ukraine would have figured out that the fuel storage tanks weren't destroyed. What Russian State Media, which the Kremlin approves, provided, was a detailed real-time analysis of the effectiveness of the first attack. Before Russia could move the remaining fuel train cars or pump down the tanks, both were destroyed. What was a problem has now been turned into a catastrophe. Further, this railyard is unusable, and the amount of track that needs to be replaced likely stretches for kilometers. the DNR is already struggling with a shortage of qualified engineers and construction workers because they sent them to the front like cannon fodder, and Russian nationals who moved to the Donbas to fill those jobs are leaving because the Kremlin told them to.

This is why operational security is so important, and Ukraine didn't need the Pentagon, NATO, spies, DRG, or satellites to figure this out.

One final note. When you consider Russian claims about Ukrainian corruption and the belief that the FSB and GRU have deeply penetrated the Ukrainian government and military - clearly, this is untrue. You don't amass a force of 50,000 troops on the Kharkiv border and have no one know on the Russian side until mechanized infantry divisions are rolling past the second echelon.

The Russian Ministry of Defense has a massive operational security program, and its intelligence network within Ukraine has been destroyed. They have neither the will nor the capacity to fix it.