Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 10 OCT 2022 11:00 PDT - Missile Attack Update

Information is very murky and changing constantly due to the vast number of attacks.

• Other analysts agree these attacks are the calling card of General Sergey Surovikin, who is likely under extreme pressure to deliver something big to the Kremlin as the new supreme commander
• The average career of a Russian command general in Ukraine is 21 days - tik tok tik tok tik tok (not the platform) 
• General Surovikin employed the same tactics in Syria with no regard for civilian infrastructure or targets such as religious buildings and hospitals
• At least 84 missiles and 24 drones in what could be called the first large wave of attacks
• Ukrainian air defenses reportedly shot down 43 cruise missiles and 13 UAVs
• ASSESSMENT: These results, if accurate, indicate an effective air defense system with about 50% success protecting dozens of targets simultaneously - this is impressive
• A Ukrainian soldier shot down a Russian cruise missile with a MANPAD, and Ukraine brought the receipts with a video - nothing is impossible in war, but this is darn close to impossible
• There have been additional attacks on Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, and the Cherkasy Oblast after the initial three hours of attacks
• The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported at least 20 cities and towns were struck in the attacks - primary targets appear to have been electrical generation and communication
• There is no information on the status of any of Ukraine's nuclear power plants, given the multiple failures of the electrical grid, which, in a partial assessment, is probably good news
• ASSESSMENT: If any plant had to SCRAM or were having cooling issues, we would have heard about it by now
• The official list of cities impacted includes Kyiv, Lviv, Rivne, Zhytomyr, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, Ivano-Frankivsk, Vinnytsia, Pryluky, Nizhyn, Konotop, Kharkiv, Kremenchuk, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, and Odesa
• At least one city attacked is allegedly "Russian territory" after the sham annexation and its ratification
• The Black Sea Fleet is reportedly reloading Kalibr cruise missiles in what is widely expected to be another round of attacks
• For the first time since the war started, Russian aerospace forces turned off all transponders in flight in the hour before the attacks
• We can only confirm 13 to 17 killed and close to 100 wounded, numbers are expected to rise
• The passport offices of the German Consulate, which is reportedly located in the Samsung Building (not its official name, but Samsung was the primary lease holder), were damaged in the attack
• No German staff was in the office at the time of the strike
• In what could be labeled as snark, somehow, the Kersch Bridge was badly damaged by an unknown bomb attack (maybe the truck??? maybe not) while Russia fired a $13 million Kh-101 cruise missile at a pedestrian bridge made of glass in Kyiv and missed
• Global condemnation has been swift, and the attacks may have the opposite desired effect the Kremlin was hoping for
• Power is partially out in 15 Ukrainian oblasts, and Ukraine has had to suspend electrical exports to the European Union to stabilize its own power grid
• ASSESSMENT: Despite the wails for more air defenses now, this would have been a difficult scenario to be 100% effective due to how many missiles arrived in a short period of time
• Another so-called "Russian red line" was crossed without the use of nuclear weapons despite repeated threats, so stop worrying