Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 04 OCT 2022 09:45 EDT - Complete Collapse in Kherson

On July 28, we wrote about how the campaign in Kherson would take months and resemble the Pacific Theater of World War II for the United States and an island hopping campaign. This assessment was based on one assumption. Russian forces would not adopt a line defense as their military doctrine calls for and would turn the villages and towns into fortresses, using artillery and armor to fill the gaps with firebases and forward operating bases in the scant tree lines.

We believed this because the gap between some towns exceeds 10 kilometers. By the book, Russian military doctrine does not think of first, second, or third lines of defense. They believe in building a formidable line of defense 10 kilometers deep. That isn't pragmatic in northern Kherson because, by its very nature, there are areas 100 kilometers square that is nearly indefensible.

Apparently, that's exactly what they did. After Ukrainian forces broke through the line of defense on the bank of the Dnipro there was nothing left. Ukraine got behind the line of artillery (expect to see a lot of captured artillery pieces in the coming week), and it all fell apart.

Once the last town holding back the Vysokopillya salient fell, likely before yesterday, there was nothing to fall back to.

Russian forces are going to attempt to set up defensive lines from Kozatske to Beryslav. There is a stunning admission in those words. "Try to set up," which means despite knowing a counteroffensive was building since June, Russian troops didn't build defenses there. It didn't fit the doctrine. 

In our assessment, Kozatske to Beryslav will become Russia's Dunkirk on the banks of the Dnipro River. They will face the wraith of HIMARS, MLRS, artillery, and close air support if they don't surrender. While some might read this and believe a call for mercy is in place or that this makes perfect sense because the actions of the Russian military mean they deserve it - neither in our assessment are true. There isn't a military on the planet faced with the same situation that would not turn the Nova Kakhovka Bridgehead on the west bank of the Dnipro into Dunkirk. It is pragmatic because wars are won by eliminating the enemy's ability to wage war.

In other news - Ukraine is winning.