Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 16 SEP 2022 13:45 PDT - Good News, Bad News

Start with the bad news - Izyum mass grave

The site is located in the forests just west of the city, not a surprise. There are between 440 and 500 bodies that are currently being exhumed.

At this time, many appear to be civilians who were killed during the bombings, shelling, and missile attacks when the city was under siege in March. A group of 17 Ukrainian soldiers in a mass grave appear to have been executed from the initial investigation. There is clear evidence that some of the bodies being exhumed were bound. A story that some had ropes around their neck and appeared to have been hanged is UNTRUE, and it was utterly irresponsible journalism to publish such a story. It benefits Russia by creating doubt over the real crimes discovered.

We understand there is a second mass grave site near or in Bohorodychne. this one is much smaller but is worse in the war crime department. Consider this unconfirmed but valid enough for us to report it. I hope we have to walk this one back.

Good news

Ukraine has crossed the Oskil River in three places.

First - at Oskil, and has advanced to Rubtsi, where fighting is ongoing.

Second - at Kupyansk - it is confirmed Ukraine controls the eastern half of the city, has established a wet crossing, and is already advancing south in the direction of Borova.

Third - at Dvorichna, and took control of the intact bridge into Hryanykivka. 

Ukraine is moving to establish control of the P-79 Highway - there is no OPSEC issue on this claim; you only have to look at a map.

There are a lot of hints about activity around Borova, but so far, only SOF - but something is cooking, and even some of the most Pro-Russian of Pro-Russian accounts are setting conditions in the information space that control of the east bank of the Oskil will be lost.

What's Next

At the risk of playing armchair general, which I hate - and this call almost requires it. A direct attack on Svatove, which is being reinforced, doesn't seem to fit with Ukraine's tactics and training. Unlike Russia, which loves to throw bodies endlessly at heavily reinforced positions, Ukraine prefers to find easier routes and force retreats from the stronger positions. 

I think the next line of defense will settle on the P-07 Highway to the P-66 Highway down to Kreminna, bypassing Svatove but bringing it under fire control, making it useless as a supply and transit hub. My guess is the Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) sees this too, which is why they rushed to reoccupy Kreminna and are digging in.

If Kreminna were to fall under Ukrainian control, I don't see a lot of force capability north of there that could stop an advance. A crossing at Borova could drive southeast and link up. Ack, I'm playing armchair general.

With Ukraine taking control of Oskil, Yatskivka, Studenok, Sosnove, and Yarova, Russian troops in Lyman are running out of options. They're likely in a technical encirclement, with artillery able to hit north of Lyman. If Ukraine can push through Yampil and move to Zarichne, the garrison will only have one route out through Stavky.

I believe Ukraine is only containing the Russian troops in Lyman and is confident they will leave when faced with imminent capture.